Gally-up

Those sounds you hear are millions of fans crying out with glee...or at least relieved sighs.

Tentative prediction for the end of this week: CO, VA move to Lean Obama. NM, WI, MN, and PA will be safer but still within striking distance for McCain. MI is the oddball, probably somewhere in between: it's more likely to go red than the later group, but certainly not to the point of CO and VA. I venture that either OH or FL will become a true tossup especially given the number of new Dem voters who aren't being polled, so it'll still probably register at about McCain +1-2 in the statewides. The state I don't really have a feel for is NV, but I highly doubt it has the potential to be as decisive as CO or VA so I wouldn't worry about it unless you're nearby and want to help GOTV.

UPDATE: Sullivan says "Chill Out". Uh-huh. Well I'm sure my mood has improved, and you've got my predictions for the state-level. The basic rule of thumb seems to be that it takes 4-7 days for state polling to catch up to national, especially with 538's model

UPDATE II: Ambinder on how campaigns size up the electorate

UPDATE III: 538's daily roundup. Their analysis is conservative, so whatever effect there may have been recently will show itself in a few days if it keeps up...