Virginia is now projecting very slightly ahead of Obama's national trendline, and would seem to represent a better pickup opportunity for him than Ohio. I'd assume that the Obama campaign is fairly pleased with that, because this is a state where they overperformed during the primaries, where they have Tim Kaine in the governor's mansion, and where the Republicans don't have quite as much of a ground game, as they are not used to having to defend the state in Presidential cycles (remember, John McCain is mostly relying in George W. Bush's scraps from 2004).I sure didn't think PA would get this close, that's interesting.
So where isn't Obama polling so well? In Ohio and Pennsylvania, where his numbers remain sluggish. While Obama would very probably win Pennsylvania if the election were held today -- he ticked up a couple of points in Rasmussen's numbers -- it has gradually moved toward Obama's national averages. What that means is that if the national numbers revert to a tie, Pennsylvania may be vulnerable, which is why it has moved up and now rates as the most important tipping point state.
I'd like Obama to pick up VA more than any other state; it would be the best wake-up call for Republicans.
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