Hedging on Carolina

FiveThirtyEight:

[North Carolina] had been stuck on about a 3-point McCain lead for months, but with the Obama campaign having worked the state harder than McCain, it's not surprising that we finally had a poll that showed him with a [+2] lead there. Still, the model is hedging on considering the state a true toss-up because of that McCain +20 poll from SurveyUSA, and the McCain +17 from Research 2000, each of which came out a couple of weeks ago. If SurveyUSA and R2K resurvey North Carolina and give Obama a better number, he will gain ground fairly quickly. Until then, caution is warranted. One other thing to keep in mind -- North Carolina is a big retail banking center, so the candidates' positions to the bailout may get extra scrutiny here.

Pennsylvania and Michigan appear to be drifting past one another like slowly-moving tectonic plates. While Pennsylvania had appeared to be a stronger state for Obama for most of the cycle, we now have it projecting as an Obama +4.1, to Michigan's Obama +5.3. If an election were held today, Obama would almost certainly win both -- but if things tighten again, Pennsylvania rather than Michigan may be the focal point.