Alaska Senate 2010 and beyond

On Dec 20 it was Murkowski 31, Palin 55

Now a local pollster says Murkowski 57, Palin 33

Phew. I'm sure a fair chunk of the difference is methodology, but in the later article are some explanations of why it would make little sense for her to challenge Murkowski.

(UPDATE: Nate Silver throws some cold water on this and, being Nate Silver, is most probably right. Oh well, we have almost a year to go before the polling starts to matter)

Hopefully all we have to worry about is Palin being the sacrificial lamb in 2012. On the one hand I'm likely to care very little about that election since barring unforseeable events it's a done deal. But on the other hand Republicanism needs to make a clean break with the Bush-Palin ignoramus axis if they want my support. Since they're fully committed to the Iraq war, defending torture, and similarly bad ideas, one of the few ways they'll be able to do this is to nominate a candidate who is not only competent but eloquent & intelligent, a concept Palin wouldn't understand if it hit her in the face.

Prediction: The more interesting choice in 2012 will be between Obama and a 3rd party protest vote (like Libertarian) for if Obama gets too lefty on economics. But all signs of his cabinet selections and stated goals are that he's too much a conventional pragmatist, and will merely carry on Clinton's Rubinomics. We have more to fear from the democratic congress than Obama himself, so apparently what we need to do is support the blue dogs once the recession turns around.