Young Democrats

Klein:

Over at The Next Right, Patrick Ruffini has some interesting reflections on the importance of an overwhelming youth vote -- though not necessarily an increased youth turnout -- for Obama's victory:

People have been focusing on whether the youth vote was up. It was -- slightly: going from 17 to 18 percent. But the real story about the youth vote is not how many "new" voters Obama got to show up. It's how he produced a gargantuan 25% swing among existing young voters, or those who were sure to vote for the first time anyway.

How big? 18 percent times a 25 percent increase in the Democratic margin equals 4.5 points, or a majority of Obama's popular vote margin.

Had the Democratic 18-29 vote stayed the same as 2004's already impressive percentage, Obama would have won by about 2 points, and would not have won 73 electoral votes from Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, or Indiana.

So, to clarify here: Obama's youth margin = 73 electoral votes. Without the economic crisis, this would have been the difference.

In the House, the youth margin for Democratic candidates was up 18 points from 2004 and 7 points from 2006 (with a 50% increase in the voter pool from '06). The 18-29 demographic's net contribution to Democratic margins in the House went from 12% x 22% = 2.64% in 2006, to 18% x 29% = 5.22% in 2008. How many of our guys lost by 2.6% or less? And it wasn't about "more" or "new" young voters. For the most part it was the same young voters, who were conditioned to vote for Democratic candidates after switching to Obama.

Among voters between 18-29, Obama held an incredible 66-32 margin. But more importantly, congressional Democrats received virtually the same share: 63-34. That suggests that this wasn't just an Obama phenomenon, but that this demographic is firming up a Democratic political affiliation. Which, after the past few years, is rather what you'd expect. But it's worth saying that this wasn't inevitable. There's a belief out there that young voters are always and everywhere Democratic. But that's not been true in recent years:

A fairly good indicator of the health of a party is the attitudes of young voters who are being exposed to it for the first time. In the 1990s, Generation X was coming of political age, and according to polls conducted by the Pew Research group, Republicans held a 1 percent edge in party identification. In 2008, it is Generation Y that is choosing political allegiances for the first time, and these under-30-somethings show an astonishing 24 percent preference for the Democrats. Even Generation X, which gave Republicans a 3 percent edge as recently as 2004, now prefers Democrats by a margin of 12 percent.

Moreover, young voters have become more Democratic by the year. In 2004, Kerry took them 54-45. In 2006, Democrats won young voters 60-38. And in 2008, Obama took them 66-32. As Ruffini says, "18 percent times a 25 percent increase in the Democratic margin equals 4.5 points, or a majority of Obama's popular vote margin. Had the Democratic 18-29 vote stayed the same as 2004's already impressive percentage, Obama would have won by about 2 points, and would not have won 73 electoral votes from Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, or Indiana." Not good news for Republicans, because the thing about young voters is that they're around for a very long time, and even if voting preferences aren't perfectly stable over a life cycle, early party affiliation is a fairly good predictor of later party affiliation.

Early partisan affiliation may have been a good predictor of future affiliation in the past, but I'm not convinced it will be as significant with this generation. If Republicans put the conserve back in conservatism and become tolerant like the British Tories, I think they'll trend back to 50% of this block's vote.

For the moment, neocon and theocratic Republicans are perceived to be ignoring the concerns of Gen Y, and as anti-youth, anti-progress, anti-environment, and socially intolerant (like, anti-gay). So long as this remains the case, you can expect a > 60% youth vote for Dems, probably for the next decade.

Anyhow, welcome to the post-boomer world:


Good cinematography. And Goodbye to All That.