Friday, March 27

Dept. of biting the moderates that feed you

Washington Monthly:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Friday that liberal groups targeting moderate Democrats with ads should back off, saying pressure from the left wing of his party won't be helpful to enacting legislation.

"I think it's very unwise and not helpful," Reid said Friday morning. "These groups should leave them alone. It's not helpful to me. It's not helpful to the Democratic Caucus."

Reid, who said he hadn't seen or heard the ads, added that "most of [the groups] run very few ads -- they only to do it to get a little press on it."

Metavirus is incensed:
[That's] one more reason why I continue to find Harry Reid to be a poor leader for the Democrats in the Senate

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Democrats' biggest enemy right now is themselves. Comments like this from Reid and the inexplicable formation of the Conservadem Caucus are giving me the distinct impression that some people in Congress are looking to yet again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Update: Take action now by going here to send a message to your Congressmen to support Obama's budget.
Inexplicable? I'm an independent who's recently voted Democrat and am closer to being a blue dog than a Republican at the moment, so I'm left wondering what's so inexplicable. Does Metavirus think we moderates don't deserve any representation by these more conservative Democrats?

He is of course free to rally in support of the president's budget, but some of us don't support it over more modest alternatives that do not balloon the deficit post 2012.

As Hillary put it at the Democratic National Convention, I thought Democrats were supposed to not be the "fall in line party". Isn't the fact that over the past eight years Republicans always voted in lockstep widely considered a bad thing? Does the Left also have no tolerance for differing views among themselves now?

Reid is not a tool. Reid is the Democratic Majority leader of the U.S. Senate and understands the art of the possible and how to manage a big tent party. A day you target your moderates from the left is a day the GOP gains ground. It will happen eventually, but I see no reason to hasten it given the rancid state of the Right these days.

Update: Pete Abel at TMV said similar things last week

Too hilarious not to repost



Sonseed on Wikipedia

And I say unto you my friends, Be not afraid

Rod Dreher:
Sex, especially homosexuality, is a big deal because how one comes down on those related questions has a lot to do with how you view the authority of Scripture and Tradition. There's a reason why the churches today are breaking apart over homosexuality, and it has to do with the plain fact that there can be no compromise on this issue, as it goes to the heart of how believers understand ourselves, our relationship to God, and to the nature of truth. This stuff matters. It matters a lot. If you are a gay person, you know how much it matters to you. Why should anybody be surprised that it matters to traditional Christians, and for reasons that go far beyond any supposed anti-gay animus? Trads believe we do not have the right to ignore the clear and continuing teaching of Scripture and the Church because it strikes our contemporaries in this post-Christian society as correct. If you think about it, what's really surprising is not that people like us object, but that intelligent folks among us believe that the case for the licitness of homosexuality, which is something accepted pretty much only in the West, and even then it's controversial (in the US) outside of cultural elite circles, is so natural and obvious that 2,000 years of Christian moral tradition should be obviated without a fuss.

If homosexuality is legitimized -- as distinct from being tolerated, which I generally support -- then it represents the culmination of the sexual revolution, the goal of which was to make individual desire the sole legitimate arbiter in defining sexual truth. It is to lock in, and, on a legal front, to codify, a purely contractual, nihilistic view of human sexuality. I believe this would be a profound distortion of what it means to be fully human. And I fully expect to lose this argument in the main, because even most conservatives today don't fully grasp how the logic of what we've already conceded as a result of being modern leads to this end.
Damon Linker:
Among many other things, Christian scripture and tradition affirm the legitimacy of slavery, claim that the Jews are cursed for killing Jesus, and assert that one must give away all of one's belongings and even learn to hate one's own family before following Christ. These are just a few of the matters on which contemporary Christians, including orthodox Christians like Rod, feel quite comfortable breaking with, or explaining away, scripture and tradition. And it's a good thing, too, because it shows that they're willing to think for themselves about important moral issues and to use their minds to separate out what is enduringly true in scripture and tradition from the unexamined prejudices that shape and distort everything touched by human hands, very much including received religious norms, practices, and beliefs. The issue, then, is to determine why so many contemporary Christians have decided that the teaching on homosexuality -- but not the teachings on slavery, Jews, and the most stringent requirements of becoming a disciple of Christ -- deserves to be preserved.
Andrew:
With Catholics, the obvious counterpoint is civil divorce. Catholics do not recognize such divorces within the church nor the second and third marriages that follow them (leaving aside the rank hypocrisy of the annulment scam). But they are prepared to live in a civil society that allows for it as a civil secular matter, just as they live easily with infertile married couples, or post-menopausal couples getting married. Until Rod explains why homosexuals as such represent a unique threat, even while they make up a tiny section of society, his singling out of gays in order to uphold his views of natural law in the civil law will look and smell like animus, not reason.

[...] It is Rod's self-evident panic at the thought of such an integration that has made some of us sit up and take note. There is some lurking fear that if this form of being human is recognized as equal in the civil sphere, let alone the sacred one, then the entire edifice of heterosexuality and marriage and family will somehow be destroyed or undermined. I do not believe that in any way. And I don't think it's possible to believe that without, at some level, engaging in homophobia - literally an irrational and exaggerated fear that the gay somehow always obliterates the straight, or that 2 percent somehow always controls the fate of 98 percent. This is where paranoia and panic take over. It is where homophobia most feels like anti-Semitism.
"But I say to you, Fear not - Let not the fear of man make you act the hypocrite," Wesley's Notes on the Bible

Life in an IT server room



Don't feel bad, we call it "job security".

But while we're on the subject of IT, here's one of my favorite tech tips that not enough people use..... learn to wheel-click on links to open them in tabs, i.e. press the mouse wheel vertically down like gravity.

Go on, wheel-click here to try it.

Similarly you can wheel-click up on the tab bar to close a tab. It's extremely handy for browsing. The only unfortunate thing is most laptops don't have a wheel nor a middle mouse button.

Obamanomics: not your parents' liberalism

Lev points to these two posts at the League and summarizes:
The upshot is that Obama's view is a synthesis between the large-scale public investment views of a Robert Reich and a free-market outlook of a Robert Rubin. I think this is largely right, and that Obama's approach might well function as an example of how a 21st century liberalism can and should work. Unlike, say, Bill Clinton's "Third Way" that didn't really have much meat on it--much like Tony Blair, Clinton didn't really have an answer for what the federal government is supposed to do, aside from "helping people"--Obama's approach is much more sophisticated and intellectually complete.

Well that didn't last long

Texas is once again doomed:
[State] Board of Education creationist Barbara Cargill today proposed an amendment to the science standards saying that teachers have to tell their students there are different estimates for the age of the Universe. This is not even a veiled attempt to attack the Big Bang model of the Universe, which clearly, and through multiple lines of evidence, indicates the Universe is 13.7 +/- 0.12 billion years old.

So Ms. Cargill is right, if she means that "different estimates" range from 13.58 to 13.82 (given one standard deviation) billion years old.

But she doesn’t mean that at all, does she? If you read her website, you’ll see she’s an out-and-out creationist. She has a large number of, um, factual errors on her site that are clearly right out of the Creationist Obscurational Handbook.

Anyway, her antiscience amendment passed 11 - 3.

So tomorrow that will go to the final vote on whether it will be added to the standards or not. With such a majority voting to pass it along, it looks like it will pass,

The only silver lining I can see here is that it apparently only lets teachers lie to their students, instead of requiring it to be in physics textbooks which would affect other states.

Quote for the next several years

"One of the reasons why Barack Obama's political team is so confident - "arrogant," as Rove would say today, in their success is that even while some of Obama's signature policies are viewed with healthy skepticism, Republicans are still splashing around in a fetid wading pool." Marc Ambinder

Calling Carter

Bartle Bull:

The wheels are already coming off Obama’s Trojan horse revolution. Will he, like Jimmy Carter, be seen as a one-term disaster? [...]

Thus the big question in Democratic circles today: “What does Hillary do about this?” Her supporters still feel that the election was stolen from her. With capital on strike, states rebelling against the president’s dependency agenda, the treasury secretary probably soon to be replaced, many top jobs still unfilled, the liberal press anxious and poll numbers plummeting, Hillary Clinton’s departure could sink an administration that already feels like a listing ship, leaving her a clear path to the Democratic nomination for 2012.
Jay Nordlinger:
During last year’s presidential campaign, Obama and his people kept saying that McCain was running “for George W. Bush’s third term.” And McCain had a very good comeback: “Well, he’s running for Jimmy Carter’s second.” But as Obama implements his policies, at home and abroad — McCain’s quip seems just a little less funny and a little more . . . true. At least I think so.
Do these people live in the same universe as us? Obama is not Carter, he's some amalgam of Kennedy and LBJ.

Hey look this stuff is getting cheaper


So why won't the media report the good news?! [Was that an ironic question? -ed.]

Red river flooding in North Dakota and Minnesota



More at The Big Picture.

That which a person makes

6 day old human embryo is beginning to implant into the endometrium, the lining of the uterus.
five days after the fertilisation of an egg, with some remaining sperm cells still sticking around. This fluorescent image was captured using a confocal microscope. The embryo and sperm cell nuclei are stained purple while sperm tails are green. The blue areas are gap junctions, which form connections between the cells.
a purple, colour-enhanced human egg sitting on a pin. The egg is coated with the zona pellicuda, a glycoprotein that protects the egg but also helps to trap and bind sperm. Two coronal cells are attached to the zona pellicuda.
Is it a person yet? Does it have a right to life? Does it have a soul? Or is the fact that up to 50% of human conceptions will naturally and spontaneously abort of some relevance?

See more beautiful microscopic images at Environmental Graffiti.

Prohibition's piñata



It's the black market economy, stupid.

How far does $150K go?

Ten real estate listings from around the world...my favorite:

A straight-up private villa on Bali with mature palms / banana trees and some kind of ’split level swimming pool’. Ridiculous.
Ok that's it, I need to get a job where I can telecommute ^_^

I wonder what $150K would get me in Bora Bora?

The winnable war?

David Brooks visits Afghanistan:
In the first place, the Afghan people want what we want. They are, as Lord Byron put it, one of the few people in the region without an inferiority complex. They think they did us a big favor by destroying the Soviet Union and we repaid them with abandonment. They think we owe them all this. [...]

Second, we’re already well through the screwing-up phase of our operation. [...]

Third, we’ve got our priorities right. [...]

Fourth, the quality of Afghan leadership is improving. [...]

Fifth, the U.S. is finally taking this war seriously. [...]

Sixth, Pakistan is finally on the agenda. [...]

I finish this trip still skeptical but also infected by the optimism of the truly impressive people who are working here. And one other thing:

After the trauma in Iraq, it would have been easy for the U.S. to withdraw into exhaustion and realism. Instead, President Obama is doubling down on the very principles that some dismiss as neocon fantasy: the idea that this nation has the capacity to use military and civilian power to promote democracy, nurture civil society and rebuild failed states.
The only reason I'm not raising realist hell against this endeavor is because it's where the threat originated. We now have a president who seems serious about grappling with the very real problems there.

I say we give him about a year to turn this around. But don't let it become another Iraq or another Vietnam.

Yglesias has a copy of what the State Department says are the Obama administration's objectives in Afghanistan.

Politico calls it Obama's war now

Ambers got a copy of Afghanistan-Pakistan White Paper.doc which was sent by the administration to members of Congress and has some good detail.

Nature hath twin furies



Nighttime tornado in Florida, 1991. Image via TMV.

The Republican Party's 2010 strategy

You can find coverage of their laughable alternative budget from TMV, Ezra Klein, and publius.

Nate Silver found a flowchart:

Now "1 World Trade Center"



Freedom is an important concept, so I'm pleased to see the Port Authority has decided against cheapening it.

"Freedom Tower" was too much like "freedom fries" and other silliness.

Now my only regret about the new tower is that it's just one. This is AMERICA, we could have crammed in three or four! ;-)

Duck Tales explains the Federal Reserve



Meanwhile Southpark explains the US Treasury, but isn't quite as insightful.

Well, that's no ordinary rabbit.



"That's the most foul, cruel, and bad-tempered rodent you ever set eyes on!" Monty Python

Intrepid sexism

Marijuana doesn't kill, prohibition does

· Deaths per year resulting from alcohol: 100,000
· Deaths per year resulting from tobacco: 430,000
· Deaths per year resulting from aspirin: 180 - 1000
· Deaths per year resulting from legal drugs: 106,000
· Deaths per year resulting from cannabis use (not the laws against it): Zero (yes, zero.)

Why is a substance whose effects are much less serious then alcohol or tobacco and roughly comparable to drinking coffee still classified as a Schedule I drug ?

C-SPAN funnies



(via Nosh)

The lethality of marijuana prohibition

Radley offers specifics:

James Poulous then mocks Sullivan for elevating pot prohibition to “deadly serious” status.

I like Poulous. But his derision is misplaced. There have been 7,000 homicides in Mexico over the last two years, the vast majority directly related to black market drug trade. Seventy percent of Mexico’s black market drug rade is marijuana.

If Poulous wants to stick closer to home, one of his commenters notes that had Cheye Calvo exercised his Second Amendment rights when Prince George’s County police wrongly raided his home last summer on the mistaken assumption he was dealing marijuana, he’d almost certainly be dead. Instead, he was merely terrorized, and his dogs were slaughtered. A couple of weeks ago, unarmed Grand Valley State student Derek Kopp was shot in the chest during a marijuana raid. He’s lucky to be alive.

But we don’t need to single out “almost” cases. Det. Jarrod Shivers is dead and Ryan Frederick’s life is ruined over the prohibition of pot. Officer Ron Jones is dead, and Cory Maye, once sentenced to be executed, now faces a life sentence because of marijuana prohibition. Cheryl Lynn Noel is dead because of pot prohibition. So are Jose Colon, Tony Martinez, 13-year-old Alberto Sepulveda, Willie Heard, Christie Green, Pedro Navarro, Barry Hodge, Salvador Hernandez, Donald Scott, Kenneth Baulch, Dep. John Bananola, Officer Tony Patterson, Vincent Hodgkiss, Anthony Diotaiuto, Clayton Helriggle, Jeffery Robinson, Troy Davis, Alexander “Rusty” Windle, John Hirko, Scott Bryant, Robert Lee Peters, Manuel Ramirez, and Bruce Lavoie. Deputies James Moulson and Phillip Anderson and suspect George Timothy Williams were all killed in a single marijuana raid in Idaho in 2001. Officer Arthur Parga and Manuel Ramirez (a different one) killed one another in another marijuana raid after a family friend suspected of dealing marijuana had incorrectly given police Ramirez’s address as his own.

These are just some of the deaths associated with marijuana raids (all summarized, with sources, here).  Then there is the domestic black market violence that comes with marijuana prohibition. And the unnecessary deaths of sick people (like Peter McWilliams) who might have lived if they’d had access to medical marijuana.

So yeah. I think “deadly serious” is about right, actually.

It's not a fucking joke Mr. President, not when so many deaths could be avoided...

Jihadist work-related accident goes terribly right

(meme)
KABUL, March 26 (Reuters) - A would-be suicide bomber accidentally blew himself up on Thursday, killing six other militants as he was bidding them farewell to leave for his intended target, the Interior Ministry said.

"The terrorist was on his way to his destination and saying good-bye to his associates and then his suicide vest exploded," a statement from the ministry said.

Thursday, March 26

Cannabis vs. alcohol

Arizona Republic:
"Marijuana is the (Mexican cartels') cash crop, the cash cow," says Brittany Brown of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's Washington office, which does not advocate legalizing pot.

Marijuana is cheap to grow and requires no processing. More than a million pounds of it was seized in Arizona in each of the past two years, according to figures provided by Ramona Sanchez of the DEA's Phoenix office. But those seizures were just a cost of doing business for multibillion-dollar drug lords. Marijuana continued to be widely available - and not just to adults.

Teens tell researchers that buying pot is easier than getting cigarettes or booze, says Bill Piper, director of National Affairs for the Drug Policy Alliance, which does advocate legalizing marijuana.

Some argue that if you legalize marijuana there would still be a black market. They say that because the product is so cheap to produce, the black market could underprice legal pot and sell to kids. But consider what we know about alcohol.

• First, Prohibition didn't work.

• Second, even though alcohol sales are regulated, back-alley or school-yard sales of moonshine is not a billion-dollar problem.

• Third, alcohol, like its addictive killer-cousin tobacco, is taxed, which helps cover its costs to society.

Not so with marijuana.

After decades of anti-pot campaigns, from Reefer Madness to zero tolerance, so many Americans choose to smoke marijuana that the Mexican cartels have become an international threat to law and order.

Instead of paying taxes on their vice, pot smokers are enriching thugs and murderers.

"People who smoke pot in the United States don't think they are connected to the cartels," Brown says. "Actually, they are very connected."

American drug users help sharpen the knives that cartel henchmen use to behead their enemies and terrorize Mexican border towns.

Even marijuana grown in the United States, increasingly in national parks and on other public lands, is often connected to Mexican cartels, Brown says.

According to the Justice Department's 2009 assessment, cartels have "established varied transportation routes, advanced communications capabilities and strong affiliations with gangs in the United States" and "maintain drug-distribution networks or supply drugs to distributors in at least 230 U.S. cities." Including Phoenix and Tucson.

The DEA says cartels are "poly-drug organizations" that routinely smuggle cocaine, methamphetamine, heroin and precursor chemicals through our state.

"(But) marijuana generates the most profit," Sanchez says
Stem the violence: re-legalize it.

Science barely holds out in Texas

The State Board of Education's creationist amendment fails on a 7-7 tie and the final vote isn't complete yet.

This has implications for the rest of the country because if Texas inserts anti-science provisions in its textbook standards, many publishers will conform to it in all states for cost-effectiveness reasons.

Dammit Texas, stop trying to put your religion in kids' biology textbooks.

Last week's launch

The STS-119 mission of space shuttle Discovery blasts off at the Kennedy Space Center in Orlando, FL on a mission to the International Space Station, March 15, 2009

Not taking legalization seriously

Following up on Obama's pathetic answer, Radley is also galled:
reader Cory Spicer emailed this afternoon:
I am watching Obama’s “online town hall” speech and I am thoroughly disgusted.

A couple days ago he opened up a forum for users to submit and vote on questions. Several of the categories had questions relating to marijuana/drug law reform as their leading vote-getters, including the most popular overall question (in terms of both total votes and yes/no spread). So how did he react?

Well, first he answered four questions that received fewer votes. Then, before the fifth question was asked, he mentioned as a somewhat snarky aside that the marijuana question was “very popular”. The audience laughed a bit, and Obama joked about how he wasn’t “sure what that says about the online community” (this got a big laugh).

Then, he gave an unequivocal “no, I don’t believe that legalizing marijuana would help our economy”, offering no elaboration or supporting facts. The audience then gave him the heartiest round of applause for the day, and he then moved on to other, less popular questions.
I didn’t see the Town Hall, but if true, this is pretty galling. Politicians regularly dismiss legalization arguments out of hand, but can never offer a good explanation for their position. Obama’s “explanation” seems to be to laugh it off, and hope it goes away. It isn’t just stoners making the case for legalization anymore. It’s the Economist, it’s Foreign Policy, it’s a sizable cadre of respected economists, it’s the former presidents of Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. If Obama’s going to continue the failed drug war, particularly the prohibition of marijuana, he ought to come up with a good reason why.
Steven Taylor:
I am struck by the unserious treatment of the issue by both the reporter and the President.

Given the cost of marijuana enforcement policies, the damage it does to civil liberties, the very real potential revenue from taxation, as well as legitimate questions about medical application, this is actually a very legitimate public policy question.

And to answer the Politico’s question, this isn’t about Cheech and Chong senses of humor, but is, if fact, about a real concern held by some in the US about this issue. Although, clearly, there was some self-selection bias going on here as well.
Freddie:
You know, there are actual policy consequences for the kind of “haha, the stoners came out!” attitude that President Obama, and the media, demonstrated towards the question about ending the prohibition of marijuana at the “digital town hall” event.

I was just watching MSNBC and they had some newsdouche on to talk about the event. Being members of the media, the host and the newsdouche mostly complained about how Obama was “leapfrogging” the media with the format. But the guy being interviewed took the time to snigger and laugh at the question about the reform of our marijuana laws, in much the same way Obama did. It’s not surprising. That’s the attitude of “serious” people everywhere, that advocating changing our destructive, futile, expensive and cruel marijuana laws has to demonstrate that the person so advocating is some burned-out, disaffected stoner who just wants to smoke up and tune out. You get that from the mainstream media and most of our national politicians all the time, the absolute refusal to take reforming our marijuana laws seriously. And that’s unfair, and corrosive to democracy, and has severe negative consequences for our policy.

First of all, even if everyone who supported the decriminalization of marijuana did so out of a simple desire to be able to smoke without fear of arrest, that would be a perfectly legitimate and principled stand. This is still a country where we are supposed to be allowed to live our lives in the manner that we want, provided that we don’t harm others or infringe on their own rights to self-determine. In democracy, you vote in part for politicians who support your interests, and you make political arguments for those policy positions that benefit your own self-interest. Hopefully, if everyone does that, the will of the people as a whole is done. So it’s not like there’s something disqualifying about people who just want to smoke marijuana and be left in peace by the government. And, of course, the use of the stoner meme plays on some deeply flawed assumptions and stereotypes, that everyone who smokes marijuana falls into the same (low class, trashy) groups. That’s one of the basic impediments to finding a little sanity in our drug laws, I’m afraid: the notion that anyone who uses marijuana is an unserious, unappealing person, and that anyone who advocates decriminalizing marijuana is similarly tainted.

And, of course, the basic libertarian impulse to leave people alone– still one of our greatest national features– is only a part of the reason to support reforming our marijuana laws. The other reasons are caught up in the utter failure of criminalization to prevent Americans from using marijuana, the massive financial costs of arresting and prosecuting marijuana offenders, the waste of valuable police resources on enforcing marijuana laws, the numbers of nonviolent marijuana offenders sitting in our jails and costing us public money, the increase in police corruption and misconduct that is an inevitable part of drug criminalization, and the occasional tragedy where an arrest on a marijuana possession results in the injury or death of the accused, a police officer, or both. The costs to this country from the continued criminalization of marijuana are truly massive, and the payoff is negligible. Completely independent of any acknowledgment of a right to use marijuana is the simple cost/benefit analysis which suggest that our current system is madness.

All of this rests on what is now a banal fact: that polling consistently shows broad majorities of Americans who favor serious reform of our marijuana laws. The American people are a slow moving beast, but they aren’t completely resistant to evidence and logic, and the great costs that the prohibition of marijuana inflicts on our society hasn’t gone unnoticed. So why, if reforming marijuana laws is broadly popular, is the issue still largerly relegated to the backburner politically? Why is neither party willing to make decriminalizing marijuana a major part of their policy platform? Because even smart, pragmatic politicians like Barack Obama can’t help but make jokes about a sensible question about a worthy initiative– worthy enough, at least, of discussion. We can’t get either party on board with ending a cruel and wasteful set of drug policies because supposedly neutral reporters can’t help but get a laugh out of positions that are sensible, adult, and supported by millions of Americans.

Our attitude towards issues have consequences. Every laugh and giggle at the expense of those who want our country to reexamine a disastrous set of policies makes it less likely that we will embark on a series of changes that would leave our country pragmatically improved and more free.
Daniel Larison:
Freddie’s frustration with Obama’s dismissive response to the large number of online questions about marijuana legalization is understandable, but it seems to me that legalization arguments will never gain much traction if advocates for it are constantly having to mention how they are not like the drug’s stereotypical users or regard the drug’s use as some grievous personal failing. Instead of coming across as a stronger argument, the standard “I’m in favor of legalization, and I’m the farthest thing in the world from a pot smoker!” argument ends up making the argument for legalization less compelling. This is because this kind of argument unintentionally reproduces the stigma against the drug and effectively endorses one of the key claims that supporters of criminalization make. While it is true that there are a great many practical and principled reasons why Americans of all stripes should oppose continued criminalization, for legalization to take hold as something more than a marginal issue that has the sympathies of more than relatively marginal political forces there would need to be a much larger constituency that regards criminalization as an intolerable imposition on one of their preferences.
I'm not sure Larison really has a point here. As he acknowledges it is Obama and his press secretary who marginalized the issue by laughing about it instead of providing real reasons to justify their stance. They played off the idea that only stoners care about this issue as a way to dismiss without taking it seriously, so that's why Freddie & others have to explain the untruth behind it.

Lowering the drinking age

60 Minutes a month ago:



Radley has one quibble:
At one point in the segment, Lesley Stahl suggests that the “conundrum” for policymakers is that raising the drinking age has reduced alcohol-related traffic fatalities, but may be contributing to fatalities associated with underage binge drinking.

But there may not be a conundrum at all. When I interviewed McCardell for the February issue of Reason, he explained why the argument that raising the drinking age is responsible for the 20-year drop in highway deaths doesn’t hold water:
There has been a decline in traffic fatalities. But it began in 1982, two years before the law changed. It has basically been flat or inching upward for the last decade.

More interestingly, the decline has come in every age group, not just people between 18 and 21. And if you look at Canada, where the minimum drinking age is 18 or 19 [depending on the province], the trend in highway fatalities has almost exactly paralleled ours. It’s far more likely that the reduction in deaths is due to seat belt use, airbags, and safer cars.
Not to mention the enormously successful public awareness campaign Mothers Against Drunk Driving began in the early 1980s. MADD today has veered off into neoprohibition. But there’s no question their PR campaign changed attitudes about drunk driving.
Education is always good. And Prohibition bad, even when it only applies to under-21s. All data I've seen supports these principles on balance.

Stupid alcohol laws in VA



Let us hope new laws re-legalizing, regulating, and taxing drugs are never this retarded. Still, it's a meaningful improvement over prohibition.

Taco Bell launches "Morning After" burrito

Somehow I missed this story from 1997:
PURCHASE, NY—Hot on the heels of last week's FDA approval, on Monday PepsiCo subsidiary Taco Bell launched its controversial "morning after" burrito, a zesty, Mexican-style entree that prevents unwanted pregnancies if ingested within 36 hours following intercourse.

Taco Bell officials are excited about the offering. "In the past, before Roe v. Wade, young women literally had to 'make a run for the border' to terminate an unwanted pregnancy," Taco Bell public relations director Grant Lesko said. "But now, women can make that same run for the border at over 7,300 convenient locations right in their own hometowns."

A good year to die

I've joked about early retirement, but Nate Silver has a post up about a real incentive to die early:
Because of a law that the Congress passed in 2001, the estate tax, which at is 45 percent this year with an exemption up to $3.5 million in assets, will be entirely repealed in 2010 before abruptly returning to its former rate of 55 percent rate in 2011.

Think there might be a few rich grannies pulled off a few respirators on December 31, 2010?

A pair of Australian economists, who studied the repeal of that country's inheritance tax in 1979, seem to think there very well could be. They found (.pdf) evidence of so-called "death elasticity": statistically significant aberrations in reported death rates in Australia on and around June 30, 1979, when the repeal of the estate tax took effect. A relatively high number of Australians who would have been subject to the tax found a way to postpone their deaths until after the 30th. (Or, just as plausibly, their relatives found ways to conceal the moment of passing on their death certificates).

Postponement of one's death, of course, isn't such a problem. But because of this one-year glitch in the tax code, it will actually incentivize dying in 2010 instead of 2011. And it's undoubtedly much easier to speed up one's date of death than to slow it down. Talk about perverse incentives
.

You might be a blogger if...

You do a bloggingheads about your engagement:



...and mention how the buildup to your relationship is all searchable in your Gmail account and actually entertain the idea of having a ceremony in The Sims/Second Life.

Obama on marijuana



The question:
"With over 1 out of 30 Americans controlled by the penal system, why not legalize, control, and tax marijuana to change the failed war on drugs into a money making, money saving boost to the economy? Do we really need that many victimless criminals?"
- Ryan Palmer, Dallas, TX
[Update: there were actually multiple questions voted high, so Obama may not have been responding to this specific one]

Obama's answer:
"Can I just interrupt, Jared, before you ask the next question, just to say that, you know, we -- we took -- we took votes about which questions were going to be asked, and I think 3 million people voted or 3.5 million people voted. I have to say that there was one question that was voted on that ranked fairly high, and that was whether legalizing marijuana would improve the economy and job creation.

And I don't know what this says about the online audience... (laughter)

... but I just want -- I don't want people to think that -- this was a fairly popular question. We want to make sure that it was answered.

The answer is, no, I don't think that is a good strategy to grow our economy. So -- all right...
Here he first focuses on the "money making, money saving boost to the economy" portion of the question. And he's morphing it into a question about "growing the economy".

But the economic case for ending prohibition isn't about "growing the economy" overall. It's about ending a drag on the licit economy by re-legalizing a widespread illicit one. In other words the point is not to increase economic activity overall, but to end part of the failed "war on drugs" that has created a very harmful black market. Much more harmful than the re-legalization of marijuana could possibly be (Also see the Netherlands, where harmful drug use decreased after legalization).

The point of re-legalizing pot is also not directly "job creation", as the president suggests. The point is to un-create unproductive jobs, meaning the vast law enforcement necessary solely to try -- and fail -- to effectively enforce drug laws, as well as the United States' ridiculously high incarceration rate. We have 5% of the world's population (1 in 20) yet host 25% of the people behind bars (1 in 4), many of them for victimless and nonviolent drug-related crimes. This is a very serious drag on our economy.

Any job creation from repealing prohibition would happen indirectly, as fewer taxes are spent on the failed enforcement of prohibitions that on balance are clearly unnecessary, unwise, and unhelpful. Instead those resources and a new tax on marijuana and all the productivity saved by scaling down the war on drugs could be invested in something more positive, like say the healthcare, education, and energy research that Obama is so eager for.

Admittedly this question wasn't phrased as well as it could have been, but it's disappointing that he didn't really address it nor the real substance behind it. He's smarter than this, which is what makes his answer more deliberately political than substantive or in the country's best interest. This has to change sometime -- and if not now, when?

Update: At the subsequent White House press briefing the issue is also not taken seriously:



(question asked at 1:20)
Q Robert, in the online town meeting, when the President said he doesn't think legalizing marijuana would give the economy a boost, was he giving a political answer or an economic answer? Does he have economic numbers to back that up?

MR. GIBBS: I'm unaware of a CEA analysis -- (laughter) -- regarding that. I think the --

Q Will you let us know if there is one? (Laughter.)

MR. GIBBS: I think you've heard the President talk about getting us on a path toward sustained economic growth. I don't think he believes that that is a part of that plan.

Q What about medicinal marijuana?

MR. GIBBS: I think the -- I'd point you to the Justice Department on developments on that.

The President asked people to ask their questions. Obviously interests aligned with certain viewpoints did so, and the President wanted to answer the question that, no, it was not -- he did not think a good economic strategy.

Q Did that question get the most votes of any?

MR. GIBBS: I will ask Macon and those guys. It is interesting when -- I think several of those topics were in things like financial stability or --

Q Green jobs.

MR. GIBBS: Green jobs, right. (Laughter.) It's unclear what leap of faith one has to make to ask that question in some of the -- some of those -- right, some of those -- some of those topics.

Q Why did he even bring it up? Why did he even bring it up? I mean, no one asked it online and no one asked it --

MR. GIBBS: No, people -- people asked it online –

Q I mean, no, I know they voted for it, they voted for it. But he brought it up on his own. This is what I'm saying. Why did he even bring --

MR. GIBBS: April, the concept of the virtual town hall meeting was to have people --

Q Transparency?

MR. GIBBS: No, no, let me -- you can ask and I'll answer -- (laughter) -- that the President asked people to go to the web site, ask questions of the administration, vote on which questions they wanted to have the President answer, and that he would do so. And as I said and as Ann said and -- maybe we should have said "clean-energy jobs" -- that would have --

Q You said "green."

MR. GIBBS: Yes, I know. That in some topics -- you know, this is not the first time that an interest group gets on a web site and votes many times for their question to be answered, and the President thought he should answer it and I think he did.

Q But, Robert, he didn't take on the serious issue. He made a joke out of it. I mean, there were a lot of questions about legalization of marijuana, not as a job creation program, but just as a serious policy issue. And with what's happening in Mexico --

MR. GIBBS: It poses the legal -- I'll do this for the President -- I didn't -- I neither emailed my question in, nor voted for it, but the President opposes the legalization of marijuana, and I'd -- I'll say I did that without even the slightest hint of laughter.

Q Can you say why?

Q Robert, while you're on this same subject can we follow up?

MR. GIBBS: Hold on one sec. Hold on.

Q What did the President learn in this? A lot of the questions were things he talks about all the time.

Q Annie, there was a question pending on why -- why he feels that way about legalizing marijuana.

MR. GIBBS: He does not think that that is -- he opposes it. He doesn't think that's the right plan for America.

Q But a follow-up on the process, on the --

MR. GIBBS: Hold on, let me -- I've lost control. (Laughter.) Hold on, what are you -- dammit, you guys don't get to Google this stuff and send in your questions. Hold on, hold on, hold on, let me --
Meanwhile Andrew Sullivan opines on "Obama's Pathetic Pot Answer":
The chuckle suggests a man of his generation. The dismissiveness toward the question of ending Prohibition as both a good in itself and a form of tax revenue is, however, depressing. His answer was a non-answer. I'm tired of having the Prohibition issue treated as if it's trivial or a joke. It is neither. It is about freedom and it's deadly serious.
Agreed. current policy is deadly serious in a tragically literal sense. Many people die every year as a direct consequence of prohibition.

Condi gets it

My view is, we got to do our way. We did our best. We did some things well, some things not so well. Now they get their chance. And I agree with the [former] president; we owe them our loyalty and our silence while they do it. […] These are quality people. I know them. They love the country and they won’t make the same decisions, perhaps, that we did. But I believe they’ll do what they think is best for the country.
I've always considered Rice to be one of Bush's better choices. Going by the other people serving under him, I think his administration was better with her than it would have been without.

Under a competent Republican president such as Reagan or Bush Sr. I think her tenure might well have been considered successful.

That's not to say she'd be near my first choice for National Security Adviser or Secretary of State, but she's relatively sane and empathetic. For instance she's pro-choice like most prominent female Republicans.

Bill Maher spoke with Madeleine Albright recently and commented that we seem to have a new tradition of women Secretaries of State. Colin Powell was also not a typical face for the U.S. It seems to me that for what it's worth picking foreign representatives from outside the white men's club has worked relatively well for the country. Obviously the effect hasn't been too noticeable with neocons making bad calls from higher up, but they do count for something in the game of international diplomacy and now that Hillary has revitalized the State Department I think the positive effect may be more noticeable, especially with Obama himself as the most visible figure.

Now with double plumbing

Secularism works



Secular free choice works on this and a whole host of issues. For instance many Jehova Witness' kids have died in the past because their parent's religion was against blood transfusions. Tragic though it may seem, this outcome is consistent with a free society of personal & parental responsibility.

We know some people will always persist with tragically dumb beliefs. For instance the Pope stated that condoms make the AIDS problem in Africa worse, which flies in the face of all evidence.

But people making dumb choices and having the opportunity to independently take responsibility for and learn from their mistakes is a lot better than a government regimenting our choices for us. That is why the socially conservative politics of evangelical Christianists like Dr. James Dobson or the nanny statism of the Left are so misguided and harmful on balance.

Mother dies one mile from hospital while cop writes ticket for expired tags

Last night's presser


I finally got around to watching the entire hour and it was very effective.

A question you will often hear me ask over the next four years is: "Could Bush, Cheney, or Palin have done this as well?" For this conference, not a chance. McCain is knowledgeable on a few issues but by his own admission the economy isn't one of them. Jindal is one of the few up-and-coming pols on the right with the intellectual heft to articulate as cogent of an agenda, but his debut a month ago was widely seen as disastrous.

And looking to the left, could Clinton, Gore, Dean, Kerry, or Hillary have given a press conference like this? Clinton certainly, Kerry not on his life. The rest have good political skills such that I'm unsure their economic knowledge runs deep enough -- I imagine we'd have just gotten a plethora of focus group tested talking points.

Whether or not you agree with some or most of his policies, it is abundantly clear that Americans have a president they can be proud of -- a far cry from right-wing blogs' "obamateur" obsession and claim that he needs a teleprompter to speak intelligently.

His staff also made great choices in selecting who to call on for questions. AFP reaches Europe (like the AP here), The Washington Times reaches social conservatives, and Politico reaches the chattering classes.

He eschewed calling on big outlets like the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, or Los Angeles Times. Such papers already give his agenda massive amounts of coverage.

Wednesday, March 25

"The Civil Heretic"

(meme) NYT has a lengthy profile of the eminent physicist Freeman Dyson, noted global warming skeptic.

Glancing through the Wikipedia entry I think his views on the reality of climate change are quite reasonable and find myself agreeing with the bulk of what's presented.

If they make him a heretic, I guess I am one too.

The devalued prime minister



Can you envision hearing a Republican saying the same to Obama's chosen successor 10 years from now? If Democrats stay drunk on spending past the recession, it could happen. But only if the Republican party remains itself broken and unable to captain the ship better.

Robber fatally shot in Miami Burger King

Miami Herald:
The robber entered wearing a ski mask. He approached a clerk, showed his gun and demanded money [...]

A customer eyed him and the two started arguing. The customer had a concealed-weapons permit and his gun -- and the two exchanged gunfire.

The robber crumpled to the floor and was pronounced dead at the scene.

The customer, with several gunshot wounds, was in serious but stable condition at Jackson Memorial Hospital's Ryder Trauma Center.
Robbery is a calculated risk that law-abiding citizens around you will be unable or unwilling to prevent it.

The adage that if you outlaw guns only outlaws will have guns is as true as ever. And they'd be bolder, seeking higher value targets than your local Burger King.

Why Marijuana is illegal

Another comprehensive take.

Short version: it's all about coercive greed in the end.

Train dare



English Russia:
Russian teens have now new fun. They dare trains.

This is needed to be done fast, because if one is appearing before the train too long before and machinist could see him and start breaking, so they run on the rails just before the train so he couldn’t start breaking and fell down on the rails, then the train moves above the person at his maximum speed, just a few inches from his head and back.

Russian teen girls seem to go for this too.
Just don't fall asleep on the tracks like some unfortunate Maine girls. That is, unless you believe in heaven and want to try exploiting the early retirement loophole.

Fetal foreclosure

Slate:
If you stop paying a surrogate mother, what happens to the fetus? [...] Through in vitro fertilization, a fetus can have two mothers: a genetic one and a gestational one.

[...] the companies were supposed to pay the surrogates. Now, the Times reports, payments have stopped. In fact, the New York Times adds, "SurroGenesis told clients on March 13 via e-mail that their money was gone. Lawyers say that as much as $2 million may be missing, with some couples losing as much as $90,000."

[...] Surrogates aren't mercenaries. But they do need to be paid for their sacrifices. With every week that passes, they endure more of pregnancy's burdens. They submit to exams, tests, and other procedures. They take on serious medical risks. They forgo activities that might harm the fetus. They lose the ability to commute to and work at other jobs. They have bills to pay. At least one abandoned surrogate says she has received an eviction notice.

If you stop paying your surrogate, she needs to quit and find another job, just like any other worker. But surrogacy isn't like any other job. The only way to quit a pregnancy is to abort it.

Vorzimer says none of the surrogates are quitting. Many "will not be reimbursed for their out-of-pocket expenses lost wages or even have their medical bills paid," he reports, but "every single one of them has committed to moving forward."

Republican remembers we have a Constitution

Michele "McCarthy" Bachmann unleashed:



Blue Texan summarizes:
BACHMANN: What provision in the Constitution could you point to to give authority for the actions that have been taken by the Treasury since March of '08?

GEITHNER: Oh, well the Congress legislated, in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, a range of very important new authorities...

BACHMANN: Sir, in the Constitution? What in the Constitution could you point to to give authority to the Treasury extraordinary actions that they take?

GEITHNER: Every action that the Treasury and the Fed and the FDIC is, is been using authority granted by this body. By this body the Congress.

BACHMANN: BUT WHAT ABOUT THE CONSTITUTION MOTHERFUCKER!?!?! THE CONSTITUTION!!!1!!?!
Though some of us may not like the Fed and think (pseudo)-government action tends to prologue crises (see Ron Paul's question) I suspect it's pretty clear in settled case law and to the vast majority of constitutional scholars that Congress has the power to tax and regulate interstate commerce and delegate portions of such things by law to the administration of the Fed, Treasury, FDIC, Fannie & Freddie, etc.

Republicans need to spend less time on the ludicrous suggestion that anything in Geithner's plan is unconstitutional and more time putting back together the pieces Bush shredded so they can be a credible party again.

That will take years to get started, however. For now what else are we to expect from a party that wants a lunatic like Michele Bachmann in leadership?

The many reasons to end Prohibition

Jeffrey Miron, senior lecturer in economics at Harvard, gives a compelling tally. Here is a portion with my numbered emphasis and imagery...



Numbered plastic markers are set on the pavement to determine the location of bullet casings found at the scene of a shootout where unknown gunmen opened fire and killed four police officers in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico on Feb. 17, 2009.

1. Prohibition creates violence because it drives the drug market underground. This means buyers and sellers cannot resolve their disputes with lawsuits, arbitration or advertising, so they resort to violence instead.



Bodies awaiting autopsies crowd a walk-in refrigerator at the morgue in the border city of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Feb. 18, 2009.

Violence was common in the alcohol industry when it was banned during Prohibition, but not before or after.

Violence is the norm in illicit gambling markets but not in legal ones. Violence is routine when prostitution is banned but not when it's permitted. Violence results from policies that create black markets, not from the characteristics of the good or activity in question.

The only way to reduce violence, therefore, is to legalize drugs. Fortuitously, legalization is the right policy for a slew of other reasons.



Army soldiers guard a police station in the border city of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Monday, March 16, 2009. As retired and active-duty soldiers largely took over security in the violence-wracked city of 1.3 million, a retired Army officer took over as head of police Monday, whose previous law enforcement chief resigned earlier, after receiving threats.

2. Prohibition of drugs corrupts politicians and law enforcement by putting police, prosecutors, judges and politicians in the position to threaten the profits of an illicit trade. This is why bribery, threats and kidnapping are common for prohibited industries but rare otherwise. Mexico's recent history illustrates this dramatically.



Mexican soldiers check the identity of a man during an operation searching for drugs and weapons in Reynosa, on Mexico's northeastern border with the U.S., late Tuesday, March 17, 2009.

3. Prohibition erodes protections against unreasonable search and seizure because neither party to a drug transaction has an incentive to report the activity to the police. Thus, enforcement requires intrusive tactics such as warrantless searches or undercover buys. The victimless nature of this so-called crime also encourages police to engage in racial profiling.



A member of the Army watches the incineration of fourteen tons of drugs in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico on December 2, 2008.

4. Prohibition has disastrous implications for national security. By eradicating coca plants in Colombia or poppy fields in Afghanistan, prohibition breeds resentment of the United States. By enriching those who produce and supply drugs, prohibition supports terrorists who sell protection services to drug traffickers.



With a .50-caliber rifle in the foreground, the U.S. House National Security and Foreign Affairs subcommittee holds a hearing on U.S.-Mexico border violence, Thursday, March 12, 2009, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C..

5. Prohibition harms the public health. Patients suffering from cancer, glaucoma and other conditions cannot use marijuana under the laws of most states or the federal government despite abundant evidence of its efficacy. Terminally ill patients cannot always get adequate pain medication because doctors may fear prosecution by the Drug Enforcement Administration.

Drug users face restrictions on clean syringes that cause them to share contaminated needles, thereby spreading HIV, hepatitis and other blood-borne diseases.



A federal policeman stands guard during an operation at a nightclub in downtown Ciudad Juarez March 7, 2009. Across the border from El Paso, Texas, Ciudad Juarez recently received hundreds of heavily armed federal forces to take over anti-drug efforts from police tainted by corruption and links to drug traffickers. Picture taken March 7.

6. Prohibitions breed disrespect for the law because despite draconian penalties and extensive enforcement, huge numbers of people still violate prohibition. This means those who break the law, and those who do not, learn that obeying laws is for suckers.



Yaneth Deyinara Garcia (center) and Sigifrido Najera (2nd from left), members of the drug Organization "Cardenas Guillen", are presented to the press at the headquarters of the Defense Secretary in Mexico City on March 20, 2009.

7. Prohibition is a drain on the public purse. Federal, state and local governments spend roughly $44 billion per year to enforce drug prohibition. These same governments forego roughly $33 billion per year in tax revenue they could collect from legalized drugs, assuming these were taxed at rates similar to those on alcohol and tobacco. Under prohibition, these revenues accrue to traffickers as increased profits.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - One in every 31 U.S. adults is in the corrections system, which includes jail, prison, probation and supervision, more than double the rate of a quarter century ago, according to a report released on Monday by the Pew Center on the States.

[...] "Violent and career criminals need to be locked up, and for a long time. But our research shows that prisons are housing too many people who can be managed safely and held accountable in the community at far lower cost," said Adam Gelb, director of the Center's Public Safety Performance Project, which produced the report.

[...] During the last 25 years prison and jail populations have grown 274 percent to 2.3 million in 2008, according to the Pew research, while those under supervision grew 226 percent over the same span to 5.1 million.

It estimated states spent a record $51.7 billion on corrections in fiscal year 2008 and incarcerating one inmate cost them, on average, $29,000
This article argues for more probation and parole, and those may be good, workable ideas.

But the single best thing we could do to reduce law enforcement and prison costs dragging the economy is to eliminate the incarceration of nonviolent drug offenders and raise revenue:


If re-legalized and taxed at a reasonable rate, the weed in this bust alone could pay all those salaries for a year plus prison costs. [And that's not even taking into account the lost productivity of being jailed for 5 years or cultivating marijuana in secret.]

Under prohibition there is no revenue and these salaries and prison costs are paid from your other local taxes.

(ht Library Grape, images via The Big Picture)

Blair similarity


British Conservative campaign poster, 1997
Alex Massie compares and contrasts:
Each has perplexed, even confounded, his opponents who've had difficulty deciding just how to attack them. Is he an extremist or a moderate and a sell-out? Like Blair, Obama is opposed by some on the right who think tht he's a dangerous socialist intent upon destroying everything that is sweet and profitable about the American. Remember the "New Labour, New Danger" campaign and the "Demon Eyes" poster of Blair? Well there's a lot of stuff like that swilling around on the American right.

It didn't work in Britain and, in this instance, I'm as yet unpersuaded it will triumph in America either. Equally, while the left of the Labour party always distrusted Blair (a distrust he was able to leverage to good effect) so some on the Democratic left have their own suspicions about Obama (not least over health policy and tade) even if, in other areas, he's shown himself to be a pretty orthodox liberal.

Not that he cares for such labels - another trait he shares with Blair. In fact both men resist labels both because fitting into a given ideological pigeon-hole makes it easier for your emies to attack you but also because each doesn't think think of himself in traditional left-right terms. The right thing to do is the thing that works. It is a pragmatic, even managierlalist approach to government that dislikes ideological language even as it pursues goals that are often actually strikingly ideological.
It's a perceptive take, go read the rest.

What Obama said and what he meant

Politico's take on Obama's second primetime press conference seems right.

The Obama deficit

(meme) From a Heritage Foundation blog, this budget sure is ugly:

President Barack Obama has repeatedly claimed that his budget would cut the deficit by half by the end of his term. But as Heritage analyst Brian Riedl has pointed out, given that Obama has already helped quadruple the deficit with his stimulus package, pledging to halve it by 2013 is hardly ambitious. The Washington Post has a great graphic which helps put President Obama’s budget deficits in context of President Bush’s.

What’s driving Obama’s unprecedented massive deficits? Spending. Riedl details:

Given our current recession, a high deficit through 2012 may be the wisest course of action. But the red uptick afterward is unacceptable and unsustainable.