Showing posts with label drezner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label drezner. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 15

Protectionism watch

Andrew:
Brad DeLong calls the tariff the Obama administration slapped on Chinese tires "really stupid." Soren Dayton doesn't pull punches:
[W]here was the logic in this? He helps his allies, with one hand, but hurts them with the other. He hurts the economy. He hurts the government run companies. And he opens a trade war just in time for the G-20...
Mish piles on:
Not a single job will return to the US as a result of these tariffs. Imports from China will drop but imports from elsewhere will rise. Thus, the unfortunate tragedy in this mess is that Obama's kowtowing to the unions is going to cost union jobs. The ultimate irony is misguided unions are cheering every step of the way.
Ugh.
I second the ugh. When asked about this a couple weeks ago, I said I didn't think Obama was protectionist enough to so stupidly mess with free trade, and that I expected him to let this pass and take the hit from the left. Shows what I know : (

Addendum: Drezner assesses the threat.

Monday, April 6

Link blag

The Post: Short '06 Lebanon War Stokes Pentagon Debate...

A war that ended three years ago and involved not a single U.S. soldier has become the subject of an increasingly heated debate inside the Pentagon, one that could alter how the U.S. military fights in the future.

When Israel and Hezbollah battled for more than a month in Lebanon in the summer of 2006, the result was widely seen as a disaster for the Israeli military. Soon after the fighting ended, some military officers began to warn that the short, bloody and relatively conventional battle foreshadowed how future enemies of the United States might fight.

Drezner: 13 Unexpected Consequences of the Financial Crisis...
7. Skirts will get longer. Here’s a piece of Wall Street folk wisdom: There is a rough correlation between bull markets and bare knees. During boom times, skirts get shorter. In these bearish times, prepare for hemlines to head south. Somewhat in relation, we’ll see something else go north: the age and weight of Playboy centerfolds. Evolutionary biology encourages people to seek “more mature” mates during times of economic insecurity, argue Terry F. Pettijohn and Brian J. Jungeberg in one of the more interesting studies published recently in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. To support their claim, the researchers showed that during recessions, centerfolds get older and, well, rounder. Similar studies have confirmed an identical trend in movie comedies—male and female leads get older during recessions.
Unreligious Right: Another Strange Poll...
Sixty-five percent of conservative Republicans have an unfavorable view of Islam. I'm surprised it's not higher. But what about liberal Democrats? Sixty percent of them have a favorable view of Islam. Really, 60% have a positive view of Islam. Is it any wonder liberals are so clueless? What causes this favorable view? Simple ignorance? Living in a dream world? Blaming problems involving Islam on the U.S.?
FiveThirtyEight: Whigs, Federalists Strongly Differ on Support for Obama...
[..] measurements of the partisan split in support for the President, as Pew Research has done here (they found a record partisan split in Obama's approval ratings, with 88 percent of Democrats but just 27 percent of Republicans approving of Obama's performance) are not quite as straightforward as they might seem. This is because partisan identification is at least somewhat fluid. The Republicans, in particular, have lost quite a bit of support over the past several years; those persons who continue to identify as Republicans are a hardened -- and very conservative -- lot. Just 24 percent of voters identified as Republican when Pew conducted this survey in March, which is roughly as low as that total has ever gotten.
Radley reminds you that libertarian free market proponents are not corporate apologists:
The U.S. Chamber has released its rankings of “business-friendly” members of Congress. Next time someone accuses libertarians and other free market proponents of being corporate apologists, send them this Tim Carney analysis of the Chamber’s list. Ron Paul, for example, scored lower than 90 percent of the Democrats in the House. Pro-free market, anti-tax Republicans scored lower than left-liberal Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden. When you look at the issues the Chamber considers pro-business, it pretty quickly demolishes the notion that free markets and big business have much of anything to do with one another.
Why did the housing crash ruin the financial system while the dot-com collapse did not? WSJ has a longish article by a 2002 Noble laureate.

NewMajority tells Wall Street Bankers how to be capitalists.

It's not often I get to say this, but The Weekly Standard's budget recommendations are better than both Obama's and the House GOP's. Apart from defense spending, of course, where they're as nuts as ever.

TMV rounds up opinions on Obama's European tour.

NY Gov. Paterson is toast, voters say 63-22 he does not deserve election to full term.

Farm subsidies won't be cut? Fraking bastards.

The next Alien vs. Predator?

Police in Detroit break up pillow fight. NYC has better luck.

Saturday, April 4

Link blag

In a statement, the White House tries to thread the needle on Iowa:
"The President respects the decision of the Iowa Supreme Court, and continues to believe that states should make their own decisions when it comes to the issue of marriage. Although President Obama supports civil unions rather than same-sex marriage, he believes that committed gay and lesbian couples should receive equal rights under the law."
Drezner:
[...] On style, Obama does get an A-. I loved this bit from Helene Cooper's NYT story: "In a rare show of emotion from the international press, many in the room stood up and cheered after Mr. Obama was done [with his press conference]." C'mon, an American was on the global stage and not one shoe was thrown? Man, times have changed. Meawhile, as for Michelle Obama, there's this priceless AP quote from a Buckingham Palace spokesman: "We don't issue instructions on not touching the queen."
WSJ: U.S to Lift Some Cuba Travel Curbs...
President Barack Obama plans to lift longstanding U.S. restrictions on Cuba, a senior administration official said, allowing Cuban-Americans to visit families there as often as they like and to send them unlimited funds.

The gesture, which could herald more openness with the Castro regime, will fulfill a campaign promise and follows more modest action in Congress this year to loosen travel rules.
reason: Too Crazy to Fail...
The dynamic duo of global finance, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan jefe Hugo Chavez, cut the ribbon on the Iran-Venezuela Joint Bank today. Speaking in Tehran, Chavez spoke of his economic model: "Capitalism needs to go down. It has to end. And we must take a transitional road to a new model that we call socialism."
David Frum: Obama's formula for disaster...
[...] In these and so many other ways, President Obama is building an economy for the 21st century of accreting waste and inefficiency, massive bureaucracy, slower productivity growth, and lagging prosperity.

I don’t blame him for borrowing the money to blast the U.S. and world economies out of their current rut. I blame him for accompanying his borrowing with a slew of long- discredited statist interventions. These will hugely burden those future Americans who inherit the job of paying off his debt.
I second that.

Obama answers question about America's standing in the world (video)

Mint.com: A visual guide to inflation

Wal-Mart deserves a Nobel peace prize?

CNET gets a look inside Google's servers, which all have their own 12V UPS battery! They've come a long way since 1998.

Rocketboom: If time was infinite and space was finite... (video)

Tuesday, March 17

State of politics diavlog



They discuss everything I've been caring about recently.

Saturday, February 28

The astounding consensus on Iraq vs. other U.S. deployments

Drezner:

As the book club on Tom Ricks' The Gamble comes to a close, Barack Obama announced his future plans for Iraq

What's fascinating is the effect of the surge on the political reaction to Obama's proposal to scale down the U.S. presence to 55,000 troops by August 2010.  It has received bipartisan support in the United States.  Iraqi officials have by and large endorsed it (though see here and scroll down).  Obama has even earned the always-crucial Foreign Policy blogger vote

Think about this for a second.  If I had told you two years ago that there would be a broad domestic and international consensus on U.S. strategy in Iraq, you would have laughed me off the Foreign Policy web site. 

Ricks argues that the surge has not led to political achievements in Iraq, and he may very well be right.  What it has accomplished, however, is changing the political optics in three crucial ways.  First, it has given Republicans cover for supporting a withdrawal, arguing that it is being done from a position of strength rather than weakness. Second, it has blunted the Democrats' zeal for immediate withdrawal.  So long as things in Iraq are going relatively well, the political pressure to DO SOMETHING NOW! has abated.  Finally, the surge has given the Iraqi government the confidence to believe that a significant U.S. drawdown will not lead them back to the abyss. 

I don't know whether the withdrawal will actually prove to be good policy -- but the fact that we've reached a political consensus that it is good policy is nothing short of astounding.  

Far be it from me to disagree that the consensus is astounding.

The 55,000 remnant is going to anger the Muslim world more than it would other peoples, and this worries me.  But for perspective here are the top 6 countries with active duty U.S. military personnel as of September 2008:
Iraq190,400
Germany55,140
Japan33,286
Afghanistan32,300
South Korea25,062
Italy9,601
Source: Department of Defense

All six countries are ones we've liberated or are attempting to liberate. From previous wars Vietnam is notably absent and has a mere 14 U.S. military personnel.  It would seem the Imperial U.S. Army didn't win that round.

But why do we still have more personnel assigned to Germany and Japan than Afghanistan? Isn't it where the last attack came from and where we continue to be at war?  Put in this perspective, Obama's announcement that he's sending 17,000 more troops to Afghanistan seems an obvious move.

Now certainly Germany and Japan are useful bases of operation.  For instance wounded soldiers who require advanced treatment get flown from Iraq to Germany, and we need the naval and air bases in Asia to defend South Korea and Taiwan.  But do we really need 55,140 in the Fatherland now that the Cold War is over?

BTW the DoD only lists 32 personnel in Pakistan. I'm sure the classified number is much higher.

Wednesday, February 25

Reagan of the Left, revisited

Drezner:

I had only one thought as I drifted in and out of sleep while listening to President Obama's non-State of the Union -- he really is the second coming of Ronald Reagan. I mean that in both good and bad ways.

Obama, like Reagan, has figured out how to drive the opposition party completely nuts without compromising his ability to govern. Like Reagan, Obama is able to communicate effectively directly with the American people. I suspect his "going public" strategy will net him significant legislative accomplishments.

However, Reagan was elected on a platform of massive tax cuts, massive increases in defense spending, and balancing the federal budget. Older readers of danieldrezner.com might recall that he was never able to reconcile all of these aims, and as a result the budget deficit ballooned.

After listening to Obama's speech, I find it utterly implausible that the United States can fund energy alternatives, impose a "market-based cap" on carbon emissions, engage in comprehensive health care reform, and institute massive education subsidies, while also halving the federal budget deficit in four years.

Seriously, am I missing something? How does that circle get squared?

Via direct infusion of hope-iness, of course! Mere competence helps too.

Sunday, February 15

Faculty governance

Drezner writes:

The Obama administration has wreaked havoc across the landscape of America's public policy school deandom, wantonly plucking top administrators to staff their foreign policy machine. [Is "deandom" even a word?--ed. Roll with it.]

First James Steinberg, Dean of the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, leaves to be Deputy Secretary of State.

Then Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, leaves to become the Director of Policy Planning at the State Department.

Over at Harvard, Joseph Nye, the former dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, has been rumored to be the next Ambassador to Japan.

I stayed silent when all these deans were poached -- and now they've gotten my guy:
Having recently returned from a fact-finding trip to North Korea, Stephen W. Bosworth, dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, will have little time to unpack his bags in Medford before heading back to the region - this time as President Obama's special envoy to North Korea, according to administration officials.

Bosworth, 69, is expected to be named today the top US diplomat to the six-nation talks that have sought for more than five years to persuade the reclusive North Korean regime to give up its nuclear weapons program in return for an end to nearly 60 years of economic isolation.
Willim F. Buckley, Jr. famously said:
"I am obliged to confess I should sooner live in a society governed by the first two thousand names in the Boston telephone directory than in a society governed by the two thousand faculty members of Harvard University."
Hmm. While I'm sympathetic to the idea of randomly selected persons being suitable for a legislative body, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be wise to give them positions like Secretary of State, Policy Planning, or ambassadorship to Japan and North Korea.

Wednesday, February 11

Link blag

NYT: some banks want to return government money.

Excellent. That's exactly how it should be. Stop freeloading on the taxpayers: if you can get along fine on your own and keep your cushy seven figure bonuses then by all means do it.

Drezner: Bad things are happening in East Asia, but cut the schadenfreude. Their problems interlock with ours and we need to work together on this.

Ambinder: State secret legislation has been reintroduced. (It's nice to occasionally be proud of my state's Senator)

LA Times: Solicitor general nominee says enemy combatants can be held without trial and has a pernicious view of what constitutes an "enemy combatant". Ugh.

Will Wilkinson posts about missing the point of libertarianism. I'm with Will on this, as usual.

Monday, February 9

Obama's first presidential press conference



READ TRANSCRIPT...

Ambers:
20:49: ...Helen Thomas asks whether Pakistan is allowing terrorists to operate, and she tries to get Obama to admit that Israel possess nuclear weapons.
Drezner:
8:49 PM: Obama loses his Helen Thomas virginity. Good answer on preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, managing to connect it to arms control with Russia. Thomas, God bless her, tries to keep talking.

8:53 PM: The Huffington Post gets a White House reporter? Who knew?!
NYT:
8:56 p.m. Finally, the moment arrived. Yes, it’s Helen time.

“This is my inaugural moment here,” Mr. Obama said as he called upon Helen Thomas, who for years who has held the honorific title as dean of the White House Press Corps. “I’m excited.”

It remains an open question whether Ms. Thomas, now a columnist for Hearst newspapers, was excited by his answer. She has been questioning presidents since before Mr. Obama was born. Some have answered, others have not. To No. 44, she began with foreign policy, wondering if any country in the Middle East had nuclear weapons.

[...]

9:03 p.m. The next questioner provided an intriguing bookend to Ms. Thomas, the biggest indication yet that the makeup of the press has changed considerably since she arrived at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Sam Stein, who is covering the White House for the Huffington Post, was called upon by President Obama. It is almost certainly the first time that a Web-based publication was recognized by the president. (To press junkies keeping track at home, the president did not call on the Wall Street Journal, the Chicago Tribune, the Los Angeles Times or any of the newsmagazines.)
NRO was predictably unimpressed with the whole thing.

Update: Shadow Government also unimpressed.

Update II: Cato truth check

Update III: Slate calls it a graduate seminar