Showing posts with label frum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label frum. Show all posts

Thursday, October 7

Thursday, November 12

Link blag

David Frum wonders if conservatives can govern.

Dish reader draws a lesson from Fort Hood. Another differs. American Muslim reaction here.

Library Grape: Catholic diocese channels Christ's love, threatens to stop feeding the poor if gays marry.

TMV: Can we please just tax the churches already?

Politico: The Republican National Committee's health insurance plan offers coverage for "a fundamental assault on innocent human life".

TPM has a Lou Dobbs slideshow retrospective. Krugman writes: "Until now it really has seemed as if there was nothing, nothing at all, that someone on the right could say and do that would make them unacceptable in polite company. Now it at least seems that there is a line somewhere."

Fallows: more than a hundred TSA agents have gone undercover...cleverly disguised as TSA agents! (he follows up)

Police arrest twenty-five dangerous deviants in Chicago.

Headline to appreciate: "Irish priest kidnapped in Philippines released by MILF"

Unlike every other document on the Web, this page is in final form and completely finished. *grin*

Math is beautiful.

This guy can juggle. So can this one.

Soldiers and their dogs.

Saturday, November 7

More on nukes

If you want zero-carbon power, they're the only practical solution.

Saturday, July 4

Nuclear reprocessing

The French do something right...
Used uranium is removed from reactor cores and chemically manipulated to restore its radioactivity. This process creates new fuels—and only small amounts of waste byproducts. The process can be repeated a third time and perhaps a fourth.

Yet in the United States, where reprocessing was invented, used uranium is simply discarded.

The result is highly wasteful: The once-used uranium still retains 96 percent of its energy potential. The result is likewise highly dangerous: That 96 percent potent uranium also retains a corresponding proportion of its toxicity to human life. So why do we not reprocess?

The decision was not made by accident. Back in the 1970s, the U.S. made a conscious policy decision to shut down its reprocessing facilities. The decision had nothing to do with energy policy, and everything to do with that era’s arms control illusions.

One of the byproducts of reprocessing uranium is plutonium. The plutonium produced by a civil reactor is not weapons-grade. It can be used as a fuel itself, and in France it is. But theoretically, this low-grade plutonium could be reprocessed again and again and enriched to a point where it could be used as a weapon.

On the basis of this fact, the Carter administration decided that the U.S. must eschew reprocessing altogether. It reasoned as follows: If the U.S. civil nuclear program permitted any reprocessing, even for fuel purposes only, that would compromise U.S. efforts to persuade other countries not to reprocess. And (the reasoning continued) an across-the-board ban on reprocessing was the only way to ensure against nuclear proliferation.

This reasoning lacked cogency, to put it very mildly.

First, even assuming that other nations cared about the example set by the U.S. civil nuclear program, they were bound to notice that the U.S. also maintained a military nuclear program. "Do as we say, not as we do," is not a principle likely to carry much weight.

Second, the notion that other nations would forgo nuclear weapons because we set them an example was naïve at best, narcissistic at worst. Does Iran care that the U.S. does not reprocess? Does North Korea? States make their nuclear decisions for their own reasons.

States that have drawn back from the nuclear threshold—Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa being the outstanding examples—have done so because a) new, democratic governments replaced nondemocratic governments and preferred to spend their money in other ways; and b) they feared inspiring counter-proliferation by their immediate neighbors. The only other motive that seems to work is c) the direct application of force, as with Israel against Iraq.

Gandhian self-sacrifice, by contrast, has had zero effect.

Friday, May 15

Horridness of the cap-and-trade racket

Via Andrew, Frum lays it out:
As the cap-and-trade bill has progressed through committee -- a draft is expected any day now -- more and more pollution rights have been allotted in advance to favored interests, free of charge. The final committee bill will probably give away at least 50 percent of all allotments, maybe even 75 percent. The freebies blow a huge hole in the budget plans of the White House, which has been counting on cap-and-trade payments from industry to help cover the enormous deficits the administration will run in coming years...

Cap-and-trade legislation will not only be contorted to favor the Democrats’ regional loyalties. In addition, it will be skewed to favor the preferred energy sources of the Obama administration -- wind and solar. These two sources face daunting technological hurdles and unforgiving economics on their own. Consequently, the measures to promote them must be hidden from sight, since no Congress would pass the taxes otherwise necessary to make them viable.

Waxman’s committee looks likely to include a straightforward quota for wind, solar and other renewable power. Utilities will ultimately be required to derive up to 25 percent of their power from these sources -- without regard to cost or the existence of cheaper, non-carbon emitting alternatives. The massive extra cost will be spread across power bills in ways that consumers will never see.
Cap and trade's political viability is the same as the political viability of tax deductions: it creates a complex system that gives politicians the ability to pick winners and losers and favor certain constituencies and technologies over others.

It increases political power while distorting the market. This distortion poorly allocates resources, stifling innovation and slowing progress, thus increasing the cost of low-carbon energy beyond what it would be with a simple, across-the-board carbon tax.

Monday, May 11

Link blag

Frum at NewMajority: The stock market performs markedly worse when Congress is in session. He also notes that the Obama administration's reorganization of Chrysler is lawless.

The ratio of Dow/Gold is not a pretty picture.

FiveThirtyEight: Discussing social and economic conservatives, Huckabee fails logic 101.

Kossacks note abstinence proponents are freaking out.

ONTARIO - Asian teen strikes back at bully in self-defense, is charged with assault, rallies community.

Yglesias: Obama's don't ask don't tell hypocrisy.

Obsidian Wings: Europe succeeded because it population was controlled by fecal matter?

Monday, May 4

Urbanization, fear, and the GOP's electability

Looking at Nate Silver's chart, I noticed a large anomaly in the urban vote's trend:



I posit that the most recent Republican successes at the national level (including the aggregate result of winning majorities in Congress) owed more to threat-mongering than the appeal of domestic Republican policies—be they social or economic.

Thus it is little wonder to see GOPers continuing to defend the utility of torture. If the public isn't scared enough to demand torture-as-policy, we probably won't be scared enough to elect Republicans again in their current state.

And this is also why Obama's message of hope was successful among swing voters. It attacked Republicans' newfound strength by convincing them to be less fearful, restoring the trend.

Short of treasonous desire for another 9/11-style attack plus a botched Democratic response, I think fear is unlikely to be a winning bet again. What then should the GOP focus on?

Daily Beast collected a symposium of views from the right. I agree with David Frum's prescription:
Over the longer term, [the GOP] needs to retool itself so it can become competitive in the Northeast, Midwest, and California. In my view, that means four things: 1) a more-relevant economic message with health care at its core; 2) an environmental policy based on science; 3) a softer tone on social issues; 4) a renewed emphasis on competence in government.

There are people in the party who are pointing in this direction, most notably Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah. It’s not a message the party wants to hear right this moment, but I think it’s the direction we will see the party taking.
I've heard many other pundits express concern that the GOP now regional party of the South and East of the Rockies. And this looks apparent on a standard map:



However, I think we should stop talking in terms regions and think more about what these voters have in common. Take a look at these cartograms with states sized by the number of electoral votes they posses. EVs correspond with that state's number of members in Congress, based on their total population in the last census:



And clearly these EV-proportioned blue states, with their higher population density, tend to be more urbanized (compare with a map of the US at night). The effect is even more pronounced when we plot the county-level results and see large splotches of blue in a sea of red countryside

Instead of worrying about appealing to macro regions, I think the GOP should try to develop a platform that better appeals to urban voters everywhere. If the urban vote could shift 5+ points in their favor, I think they'd be back in business.

Here are Frum's prescriptions again:

1) a more-relevant economic message with health care at its core
2) an environmental policy based on science
3) a softer tone on social issues
4) a renewed emphasis on competence in government

This seems like a good start to me. What more could be done to appeal to urban voters in particular?

Update: According to ABC exit polls, only 9% considered terrorism to be the most important issue in 2008. They went for McCain by a huge margin:


In 2004, CNN put this number at 19% with a virtually identical 86-14 split.

Now obviously there are people who are more likely to vote Republican because of terrorism yet who don't rank it as their #1 issue; but this gives us some idea of its salience for the GOP's 2004 victories.

Saturday, April 18

Link blag

Daily Beast: What's in the torture memos?

Cato: Obama and The Interrogation Memos: The Right Decision...
Critics, such as the one featured in this Politico article, fail to comprehend terrorism as a strategy. Thus, they are locked into counterproductive policies like secrecy and torture.

Let’s start with the strategic logic of terrorism: By goading strong powers into overreaction and error, terrorism weakens those powers and strengthens itself. Among other things, overreaction and misdirection on the part of the strong power draw sympathy and support to terrorists as it confirms the terrorist narrative that they are in a struggle against evil powers.

(more)
Yglesias and Frum marvel at conservative paranoia.

Raising the drinking age to 21 didn't save lives.

Ordinary E.D. Kain examines what the Iraq war is and isn't.

Politico: Sarah Palin offers bipartisan fundraising appeal.

Yglesias: D.C. should allow taller buildings

2006 NYT: North Korean Defectors Take a Crash Course in Coping

Radley wonders why lefties don't volunteer to pay more taxes

David Friedman has a very simple idea for getting smaller government in the U.S.

Reason: Government is to blame for the housing crisis.

Daily Beast: After gay marriage... comes gay divorce. The humanity of the story is comforting, in a way. But it's also a reminder that we need to repeal DOMA for this to work.

Thursday, April 16

Link blag

Sen Burr (R-NC) Foolishly encourages bank runs. I keep asking myself, when did the GOP transition from fiscally responsible to financially insane? Is the FDIC too complicated a government agency for some of them to understand the value of? The United States Constitution requires Senators to be of age at least 30. Perhaps we should change that to IQ at least 130?

Recession silver lining? Misguided social conservatives aren't having much luck with their legislation, as moderates focus on real problems:
school prayer and discouraging teaching evolution has been declared dead. Prospects don't look good for a proposal to require ultrasounds for first-trimester abortions. Same goes for a bill to make marriage licenses more expensive for couples who don't take a premarriage education course.
WSJ: Fight piracy with convoys?

DoD Buzz explains the SEAL techniques likely used against pirates.

James Fallows gets an anecdotal take on the state of Iraq.

WSJ: Oregon plans to hike beer tax by 1900%

Politico: Obama will simplify the tax code? More from AP.

Texas governor thinks the state could leave the union. Didn't we have a war to settle that? HotAir calls him down.

David Frum shares my anger at Secretary of Education Arne Duncan and public school teachers' unions.

Megan: Why does Canada have cost-effective healthcare? Location, location, location.

Yglesias: Merely seeing salad on a menu makes you more likely to order junk food.

Radley listens to more left-wing radio.

Saturday, April 11

Riddle me federalism

David Frum ponders implications of the same-sex marriage divide:
1) A man from an SSM state buys a condo in a non-SSM state. He marries another man back home—but he dies before he can write a will. Who inherits the condo?

2) Two women from an SSM state marry. One of them becomes pregnant. The couple splits up, and the woman who bore the child moves to a non-SSM state. The other woman sues for visitation rights. What should the state’s courts do?

3) A man in an SSM is accused of stock fraud. The federal Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenas his spouse. The spouse claims marital privilege and refuses to answer the SEC’s questions. May the SEC compel him to answer anyway?

4) Two women marry in an SSM state. The relationship sours. Without obtaining a divorce, one of the women moves to a non-SSM state and marries a man. Has she committed bigamy?

5) Two married men are vacationing in another state. One of them has a stroke. The hospital concludes he will never recover. Local law requires the hospital to ask the next of kin whether to maintain life support. Whom should it ask?

6) A man from an SSM state marries a foreign visitor of the same sex. Should the foreigner be entitled to U.S. residency? What if the foreign man has also adopted the American man's child?

7) A family in a non-SSM state sets up a trust for their son. The son moves to an SSM state, marries a man, and then gets divorced. The trust is the son's only financial asset. Should the courts of the SSM state take the trust into account when dividing up the couple’s assets? If yes, what happens when the trustees back in the non-SSM state refuse to comply?

8) A woman married to another woman wins a lawsuit against a corporation in a non-SSM state. The successful plaintiff dies without a will before she can collect her debt. Her closest blood relative demands that the corporation pay the relative, not the surviving spouse. Who gets the money?
I think it'll be much simpler once Democrats get around to repealing DOMA. I actually think DOMA is already unconstitutional per the Full Faith and Credit Clause. But once DOMA is repealed then it'll be easier for the courts to figure out how to apply the clause and whether there should be a 'public policy exception' for any of the above issues.

Here's Wikipedia:

The Full Faith and Credit Clause has been noted for its application involving orders of protection, for which the clause was expounded upon by the Violence Against Women Act; child support, for which the enforcement of the clause was spelled out in the Federal Full Faith and Credit for Child Support Orders Act (28 U.S.C. § 1738B); and its possible application to same-sex marriage, civil union, and domestic partnership laws and cases, as well as the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) and the proposed Federal Marriage Amendment. The clause has been the chief constitutional basis for challenges to the DOMA.

As of early 2004, 39 states have passed their own laws and constitutional amendments, sometimes called "mini DOMAs," which restrict marriage to opposite-sex couples. Most of these "mini DOMAs" explicitly prohibit the state from honoring same-sex marriages performed in other jurisdictions.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia stated in his dissenting opinion to the Lawrence v. Texas decision that he feared application of the Full Faith and Credit Clause to the majority's decision in that case might destroy "the structure... that has permitted a distinction to be made between heterosexual and homosexual unions." If Scalia's dissenting opinion holds true, the majority ruling could potentially negate the DOMA and create a legal situation in which all states might eventually be obliged to recognize same-sex marriages performed in Massachusetts, Iowa, Vermont, or Connecticut.

In August 2007, a federal appeals court held that, "Oklahoma's adoption amendment is unconstitutional in its refusal to recognize final adoption orders of other states that permit adoption by same-sex couples."[15]

For more information on how the Full Faith and Credit provisions of DOMA affect SSMs, here's an article by a Pennsylvania law professor. It was written before California Prop 8, but the analysis definitely applies to the four equal marriage states we have today.

Saturday, April 4

Well, when you put it that way

Via Frum, WSJ:
A lawyer in Spain -- who did his legal studies while serving over seven years in prison for kidnapping and terrorism -- has engineered a complaint accusing the U.S. government of systematically torturing war-on-terrorism detainees. He filed this complaint with Baltasar Garzon, an activist magistrate famous for championing the "universal jurisdiction" of Spanish courts. That magistrate is now asking a Spanish prosecutor to bring criminal charges on this matter against former U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, four other former Bush administration lawyers, and me.

The allegation is not that any of us tortured anyone. And it is not that any of us even directed anyone to commit torture. The allegation is that, when we advised President George W. Bush on the Geneva Conventions and detainee interrogations, our interpretations were wrong -- in the view of the disapproving Spaniards. According to the complaint, these wrong interpretations encouraged the president to make decisions that led to torture.

The Spanish magistrate apparently believes that it can be a crime for American officials to offer the wrong kind of advice to a president of the United States and, furthermore, it can be a crime punishable by a Spanish court.
...it does seem rather ridiculous. As much as I fear what these Bush lawyers did was atrocious, we should release the memos and set up a truth commission before calling an inquisition. May cooler heads prevail.

Link blag

In a statement, the White House tries to thread the needle on Iowa:
"The President respects the decision of the Iowa Supreme Court, and continues to believe that states should make their own decisions when it comes to the issue of marriage. Although President Obama supports civil unions rather than same-sex marriage, he believes that committed gay and lesbian couples should receive equal rights under the law."
Drezner:
[...] On style, Obama does get an A-. I loved this bit from Helene Cooper's NYT story: "In a rare show of emotion from the international press, many in the room stood up and cheered after Mr. Obama was done [with his press conference]." C'mon, an American was on the global stage and not one shoe was thrown? Man, times have changed. Meawhile, as for Michelle Obama, there's this priceless AP quote from a Buckingham Palace spokesman: "We don't issue instructions on not touching the queen."
WSJ: U.S to Lift Some Cuba Travel Curbs...
President Barack Obama plans to lift longstanding U.S. restrictions on Cuba, a senior administration official said, allowing Cuban-Americans to visit families there as often as they like and to send them unlimited funds.

The gesture, which could herald more openness with the Castro regime, will fulfill a campaign promise and follows more modest action in Congress this year to loosen travel rules.
reason: Too Crazy to Fail...
The dynamic duo of global finance, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan jefe Hugo Chavez, cut the ribbon on the Iran-Venezuela Joint Bank today. Speaking in Tehran, Chavez spoke of his economic model: "Capitalism needs to go down. It has to end. And we must take a transitional road to a new model that we call socialism."
David Frum: Obama's formula for disaster...
[...] In these and so many other ways, President Obama is building an economy for the 21st century of accreting waste and inefficiency, massive bureaucracy, slower productivity growth, and lagging prosperity.

I don’t blame him for borrowing the money to blast the U.S. and world economies out of their current rut. I blame him for accompanying his borrowing with a slew of long- discredited statist interventions. These will hugely burden those future Americans who inherit the job of paying off his debt.
I second that.

Obama answers question about America's standing in the world (video)

Mint.com: A visual guide to inflation

Wal-Mart deserves a Nobel peace prize?

CNET gets a look inside Google's servers, which all have their own 12V UPS battery! They've come a long way since 1998.

Rocketboom: If time was infinite and space was finite... (video)

Tuesday, March 17

State of politics diavlog



They discuss everything I've been caring about recently.

Monday, March 2

RNC Chair: Limbaugh's show incendiary and ugly

HUGHLEY: Like Rush Limbaugh, who is the de facto leader of the Republican Party.

STEELE: No, he’s not.

HUGHLEY: I will tell you what …

STEELE: I’m the de facto leader of the Republican Party.

HUGHLEY: You know what? I can appreciate that. But no one will actually decry down some of the things he says. Like when he comes out and says he wants the president to fail. I understand he wants liberalism to fail. Like, I get it’s not about the man. But it is still about the idea that he would rather have an idea fail so his idea can move to the forefront. And that would succeed. And that to me is destructive.

STEELE: How is that any different than what was said about George Bush during his presidency?

HUGHLEY: You’re absolutely — let me say something. You’re absolutely right.

STEELE: So let’s put it into context here. Let’s put it into context here. Rush Limbaugh is an entertainer. Rush Limbaugh, his whole thing is entertainment. Yes, it’s incendiary. Yes, it’s ugly.
Seems only the recently elected chairman of the RNC can get away with saying that. But good for him. It's not an ego thing: Steele knows the GOP can't appeal to moderates -- and can't win -- if Limbaugh is the face of the party.

Update: Damn, I was wrong. The right goes nuts, Rush responds, and Steele is forced to apologize:
Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele says he has reached out to Rush Limbaugh to tell him he meant no offense when he referred to the popular conservative radio host as an “entertainer” whose show can be “incendiary.”
“My intent was not to go after Rush – I have enormous respect for Rush Limbaugh,” Steele said in a telephone interview. “I was maybe a little bit inarticulate. … There was no attempt on my part to diminish his voice or his leadership.”
I thought there was a limit to this "criticize Rush than be forced to apologize" but now we see it pervades the Republican party from the Chairman on down. Only guys like David Frum are able to break from it.

Saturday, February 28

Ron Paul at CPAC 2009



This first part is a little weak with its vague talk of "liberty". But watch it anyway, because it gets better: Part 2 - Part 3

Too bad he'll be 77 years old on election day in 2012. That's a little much. But it would sure be nice to have a 1964 Goldwater moment against Obama's LBJ-ness that gets the party back on track.


Update:

David Frum tries to dispel the Goldwater myth. I would contend that today the Republican party is nothing like Ron Paul -- it lost its libertarianishness during the Bush years, largely due to hose 9/11 hysterionics. So why would a shift back be a bad thing? The GOP stands little chance of winning in 2012, and should be more concerned with developing a long-term coherent governing strategy rather than short-term pandering to its existing rump (i.e. the Bush and Palinites).

Tuesday, February 24

The GOP's voice of reason

It's David Frum, as usual:

A federal bank takeover is a bad thing obviously. I wonder though if we conservatives understand clearly enough why it is a bad thing. It’s not because we are living through an enactment of the early chapters of Atlas Shrugged. It’s because the banks are collapsing. Obama, Pelosi, et al are big-spending, high-taxing liberals. They are not socialists. They are no more eager to own these banks than the first President Bush was to own the savings and loan industry – in both cases, federal ownership was a final recourse after a terrible failure. And it was on our watch, not Obama’s, that this failure began. Our refusal to take notice of this obvious fact may excite the Republican faithful. But it is doing tremendous damage to our ability to respond effectively to the crisis.

E.D. Kain adds:
Exactly right, and more conservatives need to be saying this if they want to be taken seriously.

Monday, February 16

SNL republicans



For a more serious take, see David Frum: The party that lost its mind and Ross's follow-up

Sunday, January 25

David Frum on reason.tv

On January 21, the day after Barack Obama's inauguration, Reason.tv's Michael C. Moynihan and Nick Gillespie sat down with David Frum, the former Bush speechwriter, author of Comeback, and New Majority impresario and Steve Clemons, of the New America Foundation and The Washington Note to talk about the new president's speech, the tone of Washington, and much more.
And here's some shoe throwers:

Saturday, January 17

Future of the party

Frum discusses on AJE:



Part 2 here.

I'm looking forward to NewMajority.com

Friday, January 9