Next on the Democrats' Senate worry list

FrumForum:

Former New York Governor George Pataki now holds a significant lead against potential Democratic rivals for the 2010 New York Senate seat according to recent polling, reports Steven Greenberg of the Siena Research Institute. Among potential voters, Pataki now holds a wide lead over current Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, at 51% to 38% .  This is in contrast to the results of a poll just over a month ago that had Gillibrand in the lead at 46% to 43%. Pataki holds an even larger lead over former Tennessee Representative Harold Ford, Jr., at 54% to 32%.

Well that's a shocker if it bears out, but it's one poll--take the requisite grains of salt.

Handbell strikeforce

Thirteen member handbell choir provides some unexpected accompaniment for a Salvation Army bell ringer on Lexington Avenue in Manhattan.

Why is the trial a problem?

Josh Marshall counters:

[..] most of the criticism comes under three distinct but related arguments:

1. Civilian trials give the defendants too many rights and protections and thus create too big a risk they'll get acquitted and set free.
2. Holding the prisoners and trial in New York City puts the city's civilian population at unnecessary risk of new terror attacks.
3. Holding public, civilian trials will give the defendants an opportunity to mock the victims, have a platform to issue propaganda or gain public sympathy.

The first two arguments strike me as understandable but basically wrong on the facts. The third I find difficult in some ways even to understand and seems grounded in bad political values or even ideological cowardice.

(continued)

Quote of the day

"After eight years of delay, those allegedly responsible for the attacks of September 11th will finally face justice. They will be brought to New York -- to New York -- to answer for their alleged crimes, in a courthouse just blocks away from where the twin towers once stood."

—Eric Holder, U.S. Attorney General

Sen. Webb (D-VA) on the terror trials

Via TPM:

"I have never disputed the constitutional authority of the President to convene Article III courts in cases of international terrorism. However, I remain very concerned about the wisdom of doing so. Those who have committed acts of international terrorism are enemy combatants, just as certainly as the Japanese pilots who killed thousands of Americans at Pearl Harbor. It will be disruptive, costly, and potentially counterproductive to try them as criminals in our civilian courts.

"The precedent set by this decision deserves careful scrutiny as we consider proper venues for trying those now held at Guantanamo who were apprehended outside of this country for acts that occurred outside of the country. And we must be especially careful with any decisions to bring onto American soil any of those prisoners who remain a threat to our country but whose cases have been adjudged as inappropriate for trial at all. They do not belong in our country, they do not belong in our courts, and they do not belong in our prisons.

"I have consistently argued that military commissions, with the additional procedural rules added by Congress and enacted by President Obama, are the most appropriate venue for trying individuals adjudged to be enemy combatants."

For most of the detainees now in Guantanamo, this is probably true. But I think the Obama administration appreciates that because previous commissions enacted by Bush lacked the fairness and legitimacy of due process, merely reforming them is not enough. We must break with that past somehow.

Viewed in this light, trying KSM and a handful of others in New York seems inspired and fitting.

May they get their just desserts at an indisputably fair trial. And may the rest of the mess Bush left at Guantanamo be dealt with fairly but more quietly with the new commissions.

What is this 'rule of law' and 'due process' you speak of?

Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the self-described mastermind of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and four other men accused in the plot will be prosecuted in federal court in New York City.

Update: Redstate goes bonkers. The action alert I also received:

Stop Obama From Importing Terrorists Stateside

[..] the terrorist will get all the rights afforded an American citizen in a criminal trial, including the right to a fair trial, the right to a taxpayer funded attorney, the right to review all the evidence against him, potentially including classified intelligence matters, the right to exclude evidence against him including, potentially, any confession obtained through enhanced interrogation techniques, etc.

Horror of horrors!

What an off-off-year election night...

Based on recent polling, I would have bet on:

Hoffman over Owens for NY-23
Corzine over Christie for NJ-Gov
No on 1 in Maine

Yay me, wrong on all three counts.

Now I'm pleased with the Owens and Christie upsets, but no marriage in Maine is painful. It tells us nothing we didn't already know—the public is still close to a 50-50 split—but the loss will surely have a chilling effect on efforts in New York and New Jersey.

Lessons from NY-23

Sanity from the right:

For the better part of today, I have been reading reactions among the right to the news of Dede Scozzafava's withdrawl from the NY-23 race. Probably the most oft repeated commentary I have seen is that the developments of this race once again prove that, "moderate Republicans rarely succeed, and true conservatism wins every time".

Scozzafava dropping out is indeed a great thing for the conservative movement. It represents a victory for the grassroots activists on the ground over a disconnected and out of touch Republican establishment. But the analysis that says this proves "conservatism wins every time" is woefully misplaced, extremely lazy, and not at all grounded in reality.

This notion is an extension of rhetoric that has been used by Rush Limbaugh for years. It has gained popularity as the "true conservative" (whatever that means) base has grown frustrated with what it sees as "squishy moderates" losing in national elections. We heard it endlessly following John McCain's defeat in 2008, and had heard it previously when Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in 1996.

But the reality is very different. This increasingly popular notion is simply false, and lets take a look at why.

(continued)

The left's enervation of freedom

TheNextRight notes that the most left-liberal states are the least free: Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Washington, Hawaii, Maryland, California, Rhode Island, New Jersey... and you can probably guess the worst:

New York is by far the least free state in the Union (#50 economic, #48 personal). One of us lives in New York and can attest to the fact that few New Yorkers would be surprised by such a finding. Sadly, equally few New Yorkers seem to believe that anything can be done about the situation. New York has the highest taxes in the country. Property, selective sales, individual income, and corporate income taxes are particularly high. Spending on social services and “other” is well above national norms. Only Massachusetts has more government debt as a percentage of the economy. Government employment is higher than average. On personal freedoms, gun laws are extremely restrictive, but marijuana laws are better than average (while tobacco laws are extremely strict). Motorists are highly regulated, but several kinds of gambling are allowed statewide (not casinos, except on reservations). Home school regulations are burdensome, but asset forfeiture has been reformed. Along with Vermont, New York has the strictest health insurance community rating regulations. Mandated coverages are also very high. Eminent domain is totally unreformed. Perversely,the state strictly limits what grassroots PACs may give to candidates and parties, but not what corporations and unions may give.

And the best is, of course, one of the swingiest and independent-minded states:

New Hampshire is by our count the freest state in the country. Depending on weights, however, it really shares the first, second and third slots with Colorado and South Dakota. New Hampshire does much better on economic (#2) than personal freedom (#13). Taxes and spending are among the lowest in the country, but the tax regime is highly skewed. New Hampshire has the third highest property and corporate income taxes in the United States. These should be high priorities for cutting. On the spending side, the likeliest suspect for cutting is transportation, which is higher than average once one controls for federal grants and population density (less dense states spend more on roads). Once state population is controlled for, New Hampshire is one of the most fiscally decentralized states in the country. Local governments also must raise two-thirds of what they spend with their own taxes. Gun laws are among the most liberal in the country, but the state has a weak “peaceable journey” regime (carrying a firearm in a car requires a concealed carry permit). Its alcohol regime is relatively free. Despite state control of retail distribution of wine and spirits, the effective tax rates on these products are zero, according to the Tax Foundation. Marijuana laws are middling; low-level possession could be decriminalized like Maine, while low-level cultivation could be made a misdemeanor like both Maine and Vermont. New Hampshire is the only state in the country with no seat-belt law for adults. It lacks a motorcycle helmet law but does have a bicycle helmet law and authorizes sobriety checkpoints. New Hampshire is one of three states that permit self-insurance for auto liability. Gambling is relatively controlled: Most gaming must take place under a charitable license, social gaming is prohibited, and aggravated gambling is a felony. State approval is required to open a private school. Home school laws are about average on the whole, but the standardized testing and recordkeeping requirements are more onerous than most states. Labor laws are generally market-friendly, but it is not a right-to-work state. Occupational licensing is worse than average. Both eminent domain and asset forfeiture have been thoroughly reformed. The state’s liability system is one of the best, but campaign finance regulations are quite strict. As of 2006, smoking bans allowed many exemptions, but a thoroughgoing ban has since passed (not captured by our index).

It'll get same-sex marriage soon, too. Consider the move.

Link blag

Michelle Malkin is outraged — redundant, I know — at the Department of Homeland Security's assessment of the rightwing extremism that people like her rouse. Ordinary Will thinks it's wrong. Ambers thinks it's funny. Andrew notes hypocrisy. Greenwald concurs.

A Dish reader spends Easter with his conservative family. Yikes. Another evolves.

Vulnerable freshman Democrats are partnering with Republicans.

Gov. Paterson will introduce same-sex marriage legislation in New York.

NewMajority is unimpressed with Meghan McCain's argument for a gayer GOP.

YouTube is losing money to the tune of $1.65 million a day.

More Intelligent Life profiles Andrew Sullivan: Thinking. Out. Loud.

Megan: A world without bankruptcy is a terrible thing.

Ben Bernanke talks about the economy.

Xinhua: Somali pirates are blocked by dolphins...

The Chinese merchant ships escorted by a China's fleet sailed on the Gulf of Aden when they met some suspected pirate ships. Thousands of dolphins suddenly leaped out of water between pirates and merchants when the pirate ships headed for the China's.

The suspected pirates ships stopped and then turned away. The pirates could only lament their littleness befor the vast number of dolphins. The spectacular scene continued for a while.

Need another reason not to use Facebook?...

Researchers from Ohio State University find that those who enjoy Facebooking do less well in exams. Those who are on Facebook every day may do as much as one grade worse than those who don't.

Link blag

The Post: Short '06 Lebanon War Stokes Pentagon Debate...

A war that ended three years ago and involved not a single U.S. soldier has become the subject of an increasingly heated debate inside the Pentagon, one that could alter how the U.S. military fights in the future.

When Israel and Hezbollah battled for more than a month in Lebanon in the summer of 2006, the result was widely seen as a disaster for the Israeli military. Soon after the fighting ended, some military officers began to warn that the short, bloody and relatively conventional battle foreshadowed how future enemies of the United States might fight.

Drezner: 13 Unexpected Consequences of the Financial Crisis...

7. Skirts will get longer. Here’s a piece of Wall Street folk wisdom: There is a rough correlation between bull markets and bare knees. During boom times, skirts get shorter. In these bearish times, prepare for hemlines to head south. Somewhat in relation, we’ll see something else go north: the age and weight of Playboy centerfolds. Evolutionary biology encourages people to seek “more mature” mates during times of economic insecurity, argue Terry F. Pettijohn and Brian J. Jungeberg in one of the more interesting studies published recently in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. To support their claim, the researchers showed that during recessions, centerfolds get older and, well, rounder. Similar studies have confirmed an identical trend in movie comedies—male and female leads get older during recessions.

Unreligious Right: Another Strange Poll...

Sixty-five percent of conservative Republicans have an unfavorable view of Islam. I'm surprised it's not higher. But what about liberal Democrats? Sixty percent of them have a favorable view of Islam. Really, 60% have a positive view of Islam. Is it any wonder liberals are so clueless? What causes this favorable view? Simple ignorance? Living in a dream world? Blaming problems involving Islam on the U.S.?

FiveThirtyEight: Whigs, Federalists Strongly Differ on Support for Obama...

[..] measurements of the partisan split in support for the President, as Pew Research has done here (they found a record partisan split in Obama's approval ratings, with 88 percent of Democrats but just 27 percent of Republicans approving of Obama's performance) are not quite as straightforward as they might seem. This is because partisan identification is at least somewhat fluid. The Republicans, in particular, have lost quite a bit of support over the past several years; those persons who continue to identify as Republicans are a hardened -- and very conservative -- lot. Just 24 percent of voters identified as Republican when Pew conducted this survey in March, which is roughly as low as that total has ever gotten.

Radley reminds you that libertarian free market proponents are not corporate apologists:

The U.S. Chamber has released its rankings of “business-friendly” members of Congress. Next time someone accuses libertarians and other free market proponents of being corporate apologists, send them this Tim Carney analysis of the Chamber’s list. Ron Paul, for example, scored lower than 90 percent of the Democrats in the House. Pro-free market, anti-tax Republicans scored lower than left-liberal Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden. When you look at the issues the Chamber considers pro-business, it pretty quickly demolishes the notion that free markets and big business have much of anything to do with one another.

Why did the housing crash ruin the financial system while the dot-com collapse did not? WSJ has a longish article by a 2002 Noble laureate.

NewMajority tells Wall Street Bankers how to be capitalists.

It's not often I get to say this, but The Weekly Standard's budget recommendations are better than both Obama's and the House GOP's. Apart from defense spending, of course, where they're as nuts as ever.

TMV rounds up opinions on Obama's European tour.

NY Gov. Paterson is toast, voters say 63-22 he does not deserve election to full term.

Farm subsidies won't be cut? Fraking bastards.

The next Alien vs. Predator?

Police in Detroit break up pillow fight. NYC has better luck.