Monday, January 18

Build your own health care decision tree

No one said it would be easy...

Like Steve Benen, I would bet the House "folds" and ratifies the Senate bill without a conference, it goes to Obama for his signature, and fixes are made in the upcoming budget bill.

I don't agree with Keith's chart above of, provided Brown wins, 45% collapse and 25% ram it through. By Senate precedent, Kirk shouldn't be allowed to vote after the election tomorrow. That means no ramming.

And having this bill collapse would be extraordinarily bad for Democrats come 2010. They know this. Stupak's pro-life cabal and progressives in the House pushing for a more lefty bill need to cave.

My preferred scenario is the House doesn't fold in time and Snowe, Brown, and maybe Collins write a better bill and tell the Democrats to take it or leave it, and they eventually all fold. I can't give this more than 5% odds, however.

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