Tuesday, February 17

What recovery looks like?

The U.S. economy is headed for two quarters of negative growth in the first half of 2009, according to 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters project that real GDP will contract at an annual rate of 5.2% in the first quarter and 1.8% in the second quarter of 2009. The survey participants expect economic recovery to begin in the third quarter of 2009. On a year-over-year basis, growth is expected to be -2.0% in 2009 and 2.2% in 2010.
Because the Fed was so good at predicting the current recession...

I fear this forecast is baseless optimism, but we'll see. Q3 isn't far away...

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