Wednesday, March 24

2010 Senate update

Nate Silver:
Democrats now project to hold an average of 54.0 seats when the Senate convenes in January, 2011, according to our latest forecast, and Republicans 46.0. This reflects a roughly one-seat improvement for Republicans since our previous forecast [2 weeks ago].
I'm following the Kentucky race most closely. Today Grayson, Rand Paul's primary opponent, won the coveted Dick Cheney endorsement, aka the neocon-rightist establishment's stamp of approval.

Wah, wah.

(Paul was endorsed by Sarah Palin back in February, but of course she's anti-establishment—and not so much malicious as clueless)

Anyhow, Nate's numbers for Paul are getting comfortable:
Odds Rand Paul wins primary: 75%
If victorious in primary, Paul wins general: 80%

Combined odds, broken down:

Paul elected: 57%
Grayson elected: 21%
A Democrat elected: 22%

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