Recession declared over; expansion begins

WSJ:

The majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over.

After months of uncertainty, economists are finally seeing a break in the clouds. Forecasts were revised upward for every period, with 27 economists saying the recession had ended and 11 seeing a trough this month or next. Gross domestic product in the third quarter is now expected to show 2.4% growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate amid signs of life in the manufacturing sector, partly spurred by inventory adjustments and strong demand for the "cash for clunkers" car-rebate program. Economists expect GDP growth to remain above 2% at an annualized rate through the first half of next year.

Perry adds: Welcome to the economic expansion of 2009, the 12th economic expansion in the U.S. economy since WWII.

However, unemployment, a lagging indicator, is expected to rise to 9.9% through December 2009, and Fed rates are expected to remain low for awhile longer (guesses vary)...